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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

  • dar200 dar200 Jun 30, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    History lesson

    I don't usually teach history, but we need to reflect on it to appreciate where we are today.

    NRF stopped doing new business in 2Q, 2008. Hamo saw it coming and went into survival mode. Probably the best thing he has done for NRF is survive the financial crisis and the deep recession which came with it. For 3 years NRF was in caretaker, slow liquidation mode. In 3Q, 2011, they started doing new business with a pivot to equity reit assets and started building an asset management business.

    On 9/30/11, before the world knew new business restarted, the price closed at 3.30. Now we are at 17.53 plus 2.02 of dividends, which totals 19.55. Soooo, 3.30 to 19.55 in 2 3/4 years = 492% profit.

    At June 30, 2012, NRF closed at 5.22. Now we are at 17.53 plus 1.61 of dividends which totals 19.14. So, in 2 years, 5.22 has grown to 19.14 including dividends, = 267% profit.

    On June 30, 2013, NRF closed at 9.10. If we close today at 17.53 plus 91 cents in dividends = 18.44 from 9.10 one year ago, a profit of 102.6%.

    None of us (except the shorts) has any legitimate complaint about the performance of this stock over the past 2 3/4 years. And, imo, it ain't over. The rate of total return will probably slow because coming back from a deathbed is pretty spectacular, but as long as the growth ball keeps rolling, NRF and NSAM are keepers.......NSAM for faster price appreciation and NRF for yield plus smaller rate of growth.

    My very overweight core position ain't going anywhere soon. Flippers are different. As long as the market gives me opportunities, I'll take 'em. I just have to learn how separate companies trade. May take me a while as the dust of the spin settles.

    BTW, this morning's sale puts me over 200,000 shares of nrf sold ytd and I still own a lot more than I did at the beginning of the year. Every single share was sold at a profit. NRF flipping has been good for my belly to grow and my kids at Christmas. Wife says she is falling in love with Hamo for buying us dinner so often.

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    • Yes, and furthermore, market is still under bought. Only about 40% of the money that will eventually be in the market is there now. It will take 5 or 6 more years to get the public back in. At that point the market will be overvalued and ready to call in the bear. But by that time NRF and its successor companies will be up anther 5x.

      This is how fortunes are made in the market.

    • I am trying to relate thIs to the
      Seeking Alpo article. Since the Dec announcement the stock is up 80% more or less, dividend is up 20% and projected CAD up?% , but CAD understates the events that have taken place. Point: stock price needs to be adjusted for all of the smart things that Hammo is and will be doing. Then we can argue whether the spin has been fully discounted.

    • One of the smarter things I've done as an invesator was to buy the bulk of my NRF holdings in early March 2009. I've added additional shares only when price tumbled. I don't DRIP so dividends are subtracted from
      cost: Currently I'm up about 790%. All shares are in IRA accounts -- cost basis is not a consideration if/when shares are sold. While NSAM may not be the massive bargain that the alpha writer was foolishly hoping for, I have no complaints.

 
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