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Research Frontiers Inc. Message Board

  • iotrader20 iotrader20 Feb 14, 2007 9:29 AM Flag

    Honest Question For Longs

    Well, based on today's news it looks like REFR will at least have enough cash to continue operations for a couple of more years now:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070214/20070214005367.html?.v=1

    I have one honest question for the longs now:

    Why would REFR need over $6M to fund their operations through 2009 if large royalties were imminent anytime in the near future??

    I'll be interested to hear all responses to this question.

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    • >>>>>>My opinion about REFR's management is pretty clear at this point - I almost believe that if a large market for SPD products ever develops it will in spite of, rather than because of REFR's management.>>>>>>.

      I would also like to make the same statement for REFR stuckholders. Someday, SPD may be valuable. Some day, the REFR patents may be valuable. While REFR management controls said patents, my opinion is they will be less than worthless.

    • thearbitrator,

      <<And I'd rather dilute at $9.75 than $3.50 any day. Both bits of information are meaningless to the bottom line by themselves to be sure. And if we do have to wait 2 years for $ number 1, then it is better to do it this way considering what is likely to happen to the stock price.>>

      Well, as I said in a previous post I think the speed that they executed this sale indicates their lack of confidence in the ability of the stock price to stay at these levels so I somewhat agree with your thoughts here.

      Looking at REFR's history, one of the biggest mistakes this management has made in my opinion was not just doing one big offering in 2000 when the stock price was in excess of $20 per share (or "the big score" as I think kjpod once humorously characterized it).

      I believe they could have easily at that time sold something like 2 million shares at $20/share in that market and had enough working capital to easily last until the end of the decade if necessary - rather than the continuous offerings they have had to engage in over the years that has made them look progressively weaker to the overall market.

      <<No matter how inept, or unlucky management has been in the past, they can still come outlooking like heroes with any kind of wide market acceptance in the any one of many industry applications. This is about how it would begin.>>

      My opinion about REFR's management is pretty clear at this point - I almost believe that if a large market for SPD products ever develops it will in spite of, rather than because of REFR's management.

      Having said that, you are probably correct that all of the past issues will be forgotten by shareholders if any type of widespread commercialization of SPD occurs.

    • ""There is no doubt we may be standing on the largest oil well in the world. It has never been explored successfully before, and management is bound to make mistakes regardless of any windfalls, or pitfalls.""

      For once,arbitrator, I'll agree with you. If you use the gargantuans salaries the RFI executives are pocketing every month as a reference, we're really standing on the biggest oil well in the world. Those guys are making such an outrageous amount of money that they are paid more than most of the profitable oil companies vice presidents.

    • <<No hedge fund buys on the basis of a press release without checking out the facts behind it, and when they did so they would then know what we all know.>>

      No but they sure as heck will sell without checking out the facts, won't they?

    • I got my bid in at $8. Where's yours?

      I expect more interesting information to make itself known in two to four months. Hitachi has presented that they were producing x thousand sq. ft per month since October. Where has it been going? All to Inspectech and IGA?

    • >>>>>>>This was calculated and staged.>>>>>

      They know their victims well. Pavlov's dogs have nothing on REFR stuckholders.

    • <<The Raytheon information and the Hitachi information had to get out somehow and sometime. >>

      Everyone here knows that the "news" is 1% substance 99% hype, and everyone here knows that the "news" was leaked early to some.

      Everyone here knows that if outside investors really believed in the future of the SPD oil well/cess pool, they would have bought their shares in the open market. No hedge fund buys on the basis of a press release without checking out the facts behind it, and when they did so they would then know what we all know.

      <<If anything, I believe this financing deal is a windfall for management>>

      Just like money grows in trees.

      This was calculated and staged.

    • << And, gee, can anyone guess the majic in that particular percentage? >>

      Just under the magic 5% level where the buyers in question would have to unmask, if I don't miss my guess.

      << Only a minor technical issue, but REFR's offerings are never dilutive >>

      I still say dilutive in the sense of it diluting the company's ability to keep the tight control over the float and prevent the price from going into free-fall the next time they run out of buyers.

      People like Arby here notwithstanding, some of the our newcomers come in with real expectations for this company, and at least some of those will bail mercilessly when it becomes clear that those expectations are not being met. (I'm looking forward to their reactions to the next annual meeting.) And they're going to have to absorb that selling or see their share price collapse. Someday it will reach the point where they won't be able to do that. Maybe not in this decade, maybe not in Saxe's lifetime, but someday.

    • <<Preety soon you're going to tie yourself into a knot weaving your story in and out of all the holes in it Soulard.>>

      I agree it would be easy to completely discredit these conclusions, yet REFR says nothing. Identical to the Setra bus stunt -- "just refer to our "licensee's" press release or DC's video" Then not a peep.

      Meanwhile, you cannot possibly dispute that Inspectech puts out bad information -- to such a great extent -- it could easily be shown to be deliberate. REFR has to file 8Ks when they say something -- that's why they don't. They just let their private shell-company do the talking. They do fund certain licensees -- this they say in the filings -- they just don't say which ones.

      They do not hold conference calls for the same reason: they don't want to answer the obvious questions.

      Look, if any of this had been initiated by Raytheon, there would be great elaboration and your shell company -- which doesn't manufacture anything -- run by this aircraft mechanic, who has a full time job away from the company would not be invovled...period.

      That REFR would use Inspectech at this point illustrates desperation on their part.

      This pump and dump was the most transparent and straightforward of them all. I can't imagine living like those guys. Any day there could be a knock on the door -- but maybe not.

    • The honest answer lies in the fact that the investors were willing to pay 9.75 per share. Also, the company gets 6.5 M now to use in marketing and advertisements. Royalties could have to wait until certain periods of time. Overall a smart move to utilize cash that is available immediately.

      • 2 Replies to formicalip
      • formicalip,

        <<The honest answer lies in the fact that the investors were willing to pay 9.75 per share. Also, the company gets 6.5 M now to use in marketing and advertisements. Royalties could have to wait until certain periods of time. Overall a smart move to utilize cash that is available immediately.>>

        I guess that is one interpretation, but overall this latest financing seems to me to be a shortsighted move rather than a smart one...

        Why in the world should investors now be willing to pay higher than $11-$12 for this stock when REFR's management sold 5% of the company this week for $9.75 even after the Innovative Glass and Raytheon annoucements??

        REFR has basically stopped the recent uptrend in its tracks through its action in my view and sacrificed the additional flexibility that a higher price would have provided to the company.

        After these recent annoucements, I was looking for any change in the behavior of REFR's management to indicate that the fundamental situation regarding the commercialization of SPD had changed.

        There were other avenues available for REFR's management - they could have had a non-transferable rights offering that would have allowed shareholders who participated an opportunity to avoid further dilution of their position or they could have incurred some short-term debt as I mentioned yesterday. (As kjpod correctly points out in one of his posts, that would increase the level of accountability of REFR to external parties but if this is truly a "new era" for REFR and significant royalties are imminent then this shouldn't be an issue at all)

        Instead, their behavior has not changed in the slightest - and it just further confirms for me that the only way to judge the progress of SPD commercialization is through the tracking of royalty income in SEC filings.

      • <<The honest answer lies in the fact that the investors were willing to pay 9.75 per share. Also, the company gets 6.5 M now to use in marketing and advertisements. Royalties could have to wait until certain periods of time. Overall a smart move to utilize cash that is available immediately.>>

        The "investor" was willing to pay $9.75 because he sold the stock in advance at a higher price, creating an arbitrage. The money is being used to pay the crooked management team and possibly to fund future stunts by fraudulant shell companies such at Inspectech. Meanwhile, the "investor" takes home a couple million bucks -- all riskless, of course.

        That's said I've alway said it's a bad stock to short *because* they are so corrupt and unpredictable, unless you can somehow predict SEC action. Any management team bold enough to pull off what they have just done is capable of about anything -- the notion that these are small-time bumbling crooks (or whoever is behind them) is ridiculous.

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4.05+0.06(+1.50%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT