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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

  • monmad32 monmad32 Jun 27, 2005 2:04 PM Flag

    JUST THNKING ABOUT AMSC

    The definition of an investor is sometimes a disappointed speculator. I know my investment in amsc fits this definition at this moment.

    to break even at 100m the company has to sell 100m worth of product or service. And you can use all of the formulars you want to to prove the stock value but unless you can sell its output for more than its costs it will be a bad financial investment for someone.

    i hope i anm wrong but
    1. Wire line transmission may never be an application for hst wire
    2. Cables for a long time are probably going to be experimental and only constructed then when heavily subsidized by r & d funds much of which comes from the federal government
    3. 1g wire is not in demand at volumes needed by amsc to sell their capacity for products or r & d
    4. At 70m the navy motor contract has probably been the single facor keeping amsc alive. But the navy may want to use the dc motor being developed by general atomic so perhaps this sort of revenue may dry up.
    5. The rest of the motor market was supposed to be viable using 1g wire but there does not seem to be a single order even on the horizon.
    6. Generator r &d seems to be stalled
    7. The super var sales to tva are held up while they take a year to develope specifications. Supposedly voltage and current diviations cost industry billions a year but still very few orders in sight
    8. Superpower seems to have the current edge in their wire being used in the developement of transformers and fault current limiters
    9. The 2g wire production progress but in spite of the good news it always seems 2 years
    away from being a viable source of sufficient revenue.

    as a result we may be investors or day traders for some years and during that time alternatives to hts wire may be developed for many of these products by others

    i hope i am wrong but until i see some meaningful orders for some of these products i an fearful of amsc's ability to manage their affairs within their means even with 80m in the bank

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