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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

  • Grump430 Grump430 Feb 7, 2006 11:26 AM Flag

    Downside target

    The first downside target is 10 bucks. Thats a little bit of round number psychological support and the chart shows a little congestion there.

    Put simply, here is a lot of profit to be collected here and the chart shows the stock has rolled over.

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    • <<Given the low volume to the downside>>

      I noticed that too, and have covered my short. M's are tops, with half of one showing now. It looks like another push to the upside may be in order. That golden cross must be working. Oh well, just another move to trade.

      Good eye, tapereader.

    • Given the low volume to the downside, i have the impression that the small retail investor is slowly selling and the institutional money is accumulating. Chaulkin seems to confirm this action:

      http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=AMSC,uu[d,a]daclyiay[pb21!b50!b200!i
      ][vc60][iut!Lb14!Lya7,14,28!Lc20]&pref=G


      In addition, appears that the RSI and ULT are bottoming here and ready to turn up.

      Be interesting to see how this materializes.

    • Grump430

      It is enjoyable having a "chart person" posting here. Using charts to make investment desisions is facinating. I am sure that there is something to it, however to me it is like the daily horescope. I read mine and take it to heart, but there is still a little doubt in the back of my mind that the alignment of the planets have anything to do with daily life. Worse than that, I need to depend on the interpitation of the astrologer to determine my actions.

      One thing that I believe about stocks is that when one random stock goes up there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock will go up,(same time frame assumed). Also if one random stock goes down, then there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock goes down

      Am I correct?

      • 3 Replies to lafeet333
      • lafeet wrote

        "One thing that I believe about stocks is that when one random stock goes up there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock will go up,(same time frame assumed). Also if one random stock goes down, then there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock goes down"

        The answer depends on how the stocks are correlated. If they are negatively correlated
        you are right, but if the correlation is positive - you are wrong.

        The log returns of stock prices follows a hyperbolic distribution. The reason for this fact - I believe - is that any double sided auction is a competion between buyers and sellers. The distributions of the log returns
        on the buy(money) and sell(shares) sides is also hyperbolic. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to suppose that price elasticity
        can be described with a system of interactive
        hyperbolic Stochastic Differential Equations
        with the interaction being controlled by the correlation of the random parts.

        If the above sounds confusing, just think about the preditor prey systems you saw in
        ODE class.

        The main results of all of the above ->
        1)use log charts if you are going to use bollinger bands,
        2) Cycles and trends are built into
        the dynamics of the market

      • If my math is correct, then this is true only when 75% or more of the stocks are either up or down. I'm certain there must be a statistician on this board that can either verify or refute this.

        <<One thing that I believe about stocks is that when one random stock goes up there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock will go up,(same time frame assumed). Also if one random stock goes down, then there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock goes down

        Am I correct? >>

      • <<One thing that I believe about stocks is that when one random stock goes up there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock will go up,(same time frame assumed). Also if one random stock goes down, then there is a better than 50% chance that any other random stock goes down

        Am I correct? >>

        I am unable to answer a question using the word random , with stocks. As I see it, everything with stocks happens for a reason. We're dealing with words like money, profit,loss and future, it's not random.

 
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