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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

  • fatmoose8 fatmoose8 Feb 12, 2013 10:03 AM Flag


    My initial reaction was pretty bad, but after sifting through what they have to say I am at a conclusion where they have formed the floor for how bad the business can get. Looking at all the data, it doesn't seem to get any worse from here, and there is the "wild card" (as they put it) of the wind side. Their grid side included wire shipments revenue which BTW the first time they ever mention that. The grid side is stable with upward movement while the wind side may blow in either direction (pun intended).

    My first reaction is why would anyone want to buy this stock, and then I ask why would Douglas throw another 800K at it... pretty contradicting motions at best. They delved more info regarding the wire side (good sign), and they were most transparent to-date with all the rest of the wind side which leaves no guessing on the part of the inventors' side. Given all that, the price of the stock should be more stable with less swoons going forward. Will still be a tough story for an investor to get in, but knowing where the floor is, gives more comfort to the existing ones with a potential of an upside – hopefully!

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    • "Back in 03 and 04 when the dust was still settling from the internet frenzy AMSC was in a similar situation. They had no wind business at the time, no DVAR yet and they were rapidly running out of cash. Even then the price per share was pushing $4."

      lafeet, in 2004 there were 21 million shares out. At a low of $4 (I think it actually went a little lower), the company's market cap was around $80 million. The last 10q says there are 57 million shares out today. At $3 / share that's a market cap of about $170 million - twice the value the market gave amsc in 2004 . So even though the chart might say the stock has never been lower, it doesn't tell the whole story.

      "That was with no wind, no DVAR, and 1g wire only. This was just before the Navy motor contracts boosted the share price over $10."

      The stock started to creep back up with the Navy motor contract, but what sent it skyrocketing back to the teens (almost in a single day, if I recall corrrectly!), was the massive New England blackout.

      good luck

    • "My first reaction is why would anyone want to buy this stock ..."

      Sometimes those instinctual first reactions are on target. Look at how much talking to yourself it took to change your mind.

      good luck

    • additional edit: You forget to mention naval engines!

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