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American Superconductor Corporation Message Board

  • fatmoose8 fatmoose8 Apr 1, 2013 4:32 PM Flag

    AMSC News

    Don't you dread reading any news from AMSC - I do... until today's. Man, forgot what's it like to read a bit of good news from AMSC....

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    • Too little, too late. I'm still out and down HUGE and NOT buying back in.

      Sentiment: Sell

    • Now that people know when the company will turn profitable, we might see some positive action towards the stock.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • It was refreshing...still 8 qtrs away but at least he put a timetable in place . It can go either way but you'd think he gave himslef plenty of cushion. Not earth shattering but it is the type of news we've been waiting to hear.

      • 2 Replies to jfkel
      • Cash flow positive in 8 quarters time. Something like that doesn't happen quarter over quarter, so I believe this is good management.

        Management has guidance to be positive in two years time. Remenber that a lot can happen in two years time: extra follow-up orders, settlements, JV,...

      • {still 8 qtrs away but at least he put a timetable in place}

        The writers are still oblivious to amsc reporting schedule. They think the FY2014 consensus estimate for $112 Million is for next year.

        ...................The co believes that annualized revenues in the range of $180-190 mln would be needed in order to achieve this target (Fy14 consensus $112 mln). ...........

        8 quarters to go from revenue of $12 Million to $45 Million per quarter.

        They do have a backlog of a few hundred million so it isn't entirly out fo the ballpark.

        My guess, is that they will need superconductor revenue between $15 and $20 Million per quarter to break even there. If they are to reach $45 Million revenue in 8 more quarters, they must be looking for more wire orders from LS Cable and a few other customers as well within the next 6 or 7 quarters.

        The wire orders, are not well advertized, but now that the new line is up and running, I would think that the lead time will be relatively short for wire orders. DVAR orders have a lead time between 6 to 18 months historically so any DVAR orders will have had to come in within the next year - year and a half.

        Wind electronics have a longer lead time than DVARs, however they have a backlog already established and they can be relatively predictable well in advance. At least the maximum revenue is predictable. The maximum revenue has a strong market factor in it. The customer production rate is not something that can be speeded up very fast even if the market suddenly turns favorable.

        They are predicting more than $32 Million more per quarter in two years. I am wondering how much of that will be in wsuperconductor sales.

        Sentiment: Buy

 
AMSC
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