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Abraxas Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • easyandslow11 easyandslow11 Apr 30, 2012 11:22 AM Flag

    Advice requested

    I am the sucker who bought 15K shares at an average prive of 4 dollars. Is there any realistic timeframe that any of the regulars here can share as to whether this stock is dead. I'll move on and take my loss, but this downtrend seemed way over done.

    Please only serious replies, I dont need anymore advice as to how dumb I was in investing in this company.

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    • Texte, if you average my AXAS out I'm still making money. I love 15% capital gains and believe the news coming will be positive IMO. I also own KOG but not as much as AXAS and some months before long term.

      Good Luck!!

    • Y'all do realize this is a Nat Gas company just now starting to move into oil right? Seems to me like someone hasn't done any homework.

    • Gras,
      Just a visitor here, having sold my AXAS apparently where you bot.

      Averaging up does not mean to keep buying at price 2x your first buy, averaging up means building your position while a stock is rising. If your average cost was 2, you shd have been selling at 4.

      Building a position while it is falling leaves you open to the stock to continue to fall.

      JMO on these plays, one guy says this is for LT investors, and not to disparage him, but all commodity stocks are trading vehicles. They all move with the price of the underlying commodity. If oil is high, they are hi, and you need to sell.

      Oil above 110 is a sell point. It may see 120 for a brief period, but above 110 you get a lot of economic and political pressure to reduce it.

      Below 95 or 90, the Russians, the Saudis, and our buddy crazy Hugo are running short in their daily checkbooks, so they will do whatever they can to drive it back to 100.

      JMO. All my oil trades, and I do a lot, are based on selling whn oil gets to 110, and buying around now.

      I buy the guys who had the best, most recent, report. This time, that was KOG, last Friday, up on Friday, and up today.

    • Shun KOG - a bunch of jerkoffs overpaying themselves.... Absentee board of Directors!

    • Agreed - check out average analysts estimates - According to slow stochastic it is oversold right now. Look to regain up to 4 by the Fall.

    • Buy more - it is oversold right now and likely will have a major uptick on the next update about production. Buying lower now will average your cost basis way down.
      Check out the relative strength index and the slow stochastic historical - it will drop a little more but in about 6 months will be trading around 3.75.

      Good luck!

    • polycarp23 May 2, 2012 6:37 PM Flag

      Come on, Buffet always had great patience and he always bought what everyone else was selling. What's his mantra? "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful"

      Here's a classic instance when a good company with lots to offer is causing many to be fearful, but according to Buffet, we should be greedy. This stock is dirt cheap, even at $4 bucks, but you've got to be patient, like Buffet has always been. In two years AXAS might be over $15 or $18. You never know, this is not a stock for traders as much as it is a stock for investors.

    • AXAS is having trouble staying above $3 even with oil at $104 and DOW above $13,000. I would love to see AXAS at $4+ but I feel that it will take a while unless some very good news comes from the company or oil price hits $110. As we approach elections there could be pressure to bring oil price down which will certainly impact AXAS in short term.


    • I can't help your current issue, but here's a thot for the future.

      If you buy XOM, you don't need to do this, but if you buy $2B and below mkt cap O&G companies, the stock movement is affected by 2 things, the micro events and the macro environment.

      For my O&G plays, which are all the smaller plays, I watch XLE, the iShares ETF. It is a clear indicator of money flow into, and out of, this group.

      When XLE peaked on Feb 24, with an RSI of nearly 80, I started selling, and sold fast. Saved me a fortune.

      Since then, AXAS has had their problems. Money has begun to flow back into the group. If I had AXAS, I would watch XLE, and if it got to an RSI over 60 and AXAS was still not moving, I would trim my position.

      Meanwhile, I would look at the O&G plays that are responding to the positive money flow, and get into something that could make you some profits.

      Don't add the your AXAS until there's good micro news from them. Shop elsewhere.

      JMO, GL.

    • 2-3 quarters sadly. It sucks to keep 60k tied up like this. But, remember several factors, it is making decent returns on its Texas assets. it is getting rid o f eagle for a decent price which should take it out of debt. it has its own rig and is not actively drilling on its own lnd in the bakken. It has done its homework and should kick butt this qurter. next should be even better and third should be incredible. Look for a 5 or 6 or better to get out or look for it to get bought out once its deb is gone. it is in the heart of the bakken. I would love to see it hit 10 but I doubt it.

      • 1 Reply to njb189
      • This is a very strange stock. There are many reasons to throw stones here; but AXAS seems to be addressing it's problems. They hired a VP in charge of engineering to hopefully guide the drill rig responsibly and shore up the nuts and bolts operations. They hired a very reputable firm to handle the Eagleford sale and hopefully we won't be chasing the June target date down the road again. Plus the game plan seems to be very solid and I think a $6. year end PPS is not out of reach at all.

        Bob just has to stay on that bull for a full 8 seconds is all.


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