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Abraxas Petroleum Corp. Message Board

  • bogwa1406 bogwa1406 Apr 18, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    I'd keep everything in context....things are looking very good...but everyone needs to stay within the scope of reality.

    - Per company guidance for Q1 it's 4,000 to 4,100 boepd. But that is high oil cut and there should be lower LOE costs versus 4th QTR.. if it's mid range of $1.50 lower x 4,000 x 90= $540,000 in lower LOE versus 4th qtr 2013.
    - Yes there were some good IP's on Dutch and Snake Eyes that came in late in Q1....but Q1 also had two very brutal weather months in Jan and Feb. I do however think AXAS has been wise to minimize targets so I would be surprised if 4,000 is missed.
    - There will also be a little boost from the Permian sale..but after taxes...it'll probably just tack on around a $ 1million or a little more.
    - Q1 in my opinion is more about just not taking a large hit...as many E&P's had a rough Q1.
    - This is all about what's about to come on line in production...and by all indications it appears AXAS is set-up to go from 4,000 boepd in Q1..to + 6,000 boepd by year...a 50% production gain of high % oil.
    - If the Eye's validate the Jourdanton play and the Bakken down spacing is successful there will be significant
    asset valuation gained.
    - If indeed rigs are added in late June /July...then 2015 could see boepd go from 6,000+ boepd exit rate to an exit rate of 9,000 boepd ...another 50% increase.
    But it's a process that doesn't happen over night...you have to keep things in context....and just watch as the FACTS..unfold and turn a deaf ear to the BS which flies.
    Could there be some hiccups along the way..yes...but so far AXAS has executed very well in their stated strategy both financially and operationally. We're now above the magic $5 mark so we'll probably begin to get more coverage and scrutiny both pro and con. I think we're in great shape to get a lot more valuation on pps
    but it is dependent on factual performance and results. Congrats to longs and I still think we have a lot more potential going forward...all depends on results...and that's just something you have to be willing to wait on.
    JMHO GLTA

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    • Bogi....AM trying to transition a little more from MHR (LT) to Axas ,,as you know....."Senator",,,, (lol)
      As a Sailor ,,, "into the wind she blows",,,, Let 'er Rip,,,,Austin

      Oiltrash

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • tracey563@bellsouth.net tracey563 Apr 21, 2014 11:23 AM Flag

      bog you kept me pretty sane the last 8 mos,thanks for all you do here

      Sentiment: Hold

    • "There will also be a little boost from the Permian sale..but after taxes...it'll probably just tack on around a $ 1million or a little more."

      Note: There won't be any Profit of Loss on this tranaction.
      AXAS is under Full Costing Method:

      From the 10K, Page #43; I assumed we all read the 10K:

      "Gain on Sale of Oil and Gas Properties. The divestiture of our oil and gas properties in the Eagle Ford shale during the fourth quarter of 2013 resulted in a $33.4 million gain due to its magnitude. Under Securities and Exchange Regulation S-X, full cost accounting companies generally credit the full cost pool for proceeds from the sale of oil and gas properties. An exception to this rule occurs when the adjustment to the full cost pool results in a significant alteration of the relationship between capitalized cost and proved reserves. Due to the magnitude of this sale, there was a significant alteration of this relationship resulting in gain recognition. The basis of the properties sold was determined based on the relative fair value of the assets sold and assets retained. "

      ED (10K are history books; they are worth reading)

    • Great synopsis Bogi, Thanks GLTA
      Don't OD on those chocolate Easter Eggs unless the're rum filled .....lol

      Oiltrash

      Sentiment: Buy

    • A lot of folks like to believe that moves are all about their company and their company's success too. In this case, the advance is being aided by strength across the entire sector.

      See, oil was the last bastion of market segments that never passed it's 2007 highs after the crash. That index JUST broke up within the last week or so. Essentially we are back in 2012 with E&Ps compared to other sectors.

      Now the REAL question is, are we going to catch up to them?

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Bogwa Thanks for the post and past info, Your experience and insight have added great value to this board. let's hope 2014 continues to be a great year for AXAS and it investors.

      • 1 Reply to randy.crocker
      • I appreciate the compliment, but there are numerous posters who add valuation. It just gets so mundane at times when there so many robo posters or just plain childish lunatics...that one does wonder if they are sharing anything worth while. I'm not a guru....I don't post buy or sell....I do sincerely try and pass on some lessons I've learned the hard way...but I'll never say my way of investing is the only way to invest. There's 10 ways to skin a cat and as long as you don't get clawed to death in skinning the cat...then do what works for you. Most folks probably consider my approach is wearing body armor, full face mask and helmet, and three layers of leather gloves....but I do so because I've been nearly clawed to death by what I thought at the time were kittens. I'm also not an accountant....I've yet to own a stock where even a top tier accounting firm could assure quarterly results ahead of time. There's always either a goodwill charge, an impairment charge, derivative gains or losses, etc. etc, etc.....and I'm just not willing to pursue a doctorates degree in accounting when those who have them can't seem to get an edge. I guess Enron is as good an example as any stock can be.....anyone can be swindled by anyone at anytime....sometimes you have to just go with the grey matter you have, your experience and your instinct...and toss in a good measure of discipline. There will always be macro, sector and micro events testing you on almost any stock investment...regardless of sector. Generally the more knowledge you have in a sector the better you will do. Learn from your mistakes...take fault and own it...and you'll be better for it. Investing can be fun, it can be invigorating and it can be rewarding....and YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO SLEEP AT NIGHT. The ushers will now pass the plate ! JMHO GLTA

 
AXAS
5.38+0.10(+1.89%)Sep 23 3:59 PMEDT

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