Don't Expect Much Appreciation In Share Price Even If Earnings Are Good
In my view, even if the earnings are very good, I doubt that this will do much in terms of share price appreciation and will result in just a little pop up in share price. As long as these governmental, criminal, and regulatory investigations are looming, even good earnings will be discounted by the market both because of these pending matters and because they will be viewed as suspect based on the accounting improprieties alleged against EBIX. Conversely, if earnings in any way miss, the stock price will likely tank. I think that EBIX will be locked into this pattern up and until these investigations conclude or another buyout offer is made.
As long as they show up to the CC and don't flee the country, it is bound to go up. Even an earnings miss would put the PE from 6 to 7? Why would someone who is being scrutinized say anything false at all if they know they're being scrutinized? Especially to the public on a recorded message?
Ebix is under massive attack by relentless shorts. Did anyone else notice how GS announced a $20 buyout and for many days EBIX was trading above $20, it was even above $21 at one point. Common logic is that a massive short squeeze will occur again with these relentless shorts. If you thought TSLA's squeeze was bad, I think EBIX will be the squeeze of the decade.
I disagree. Any sign that operations are continuing as normal will be a positive. Also, the only analyst who bothered to keep his estimate posted after the buyout announcement is way too low and doesn't factor in stock buyback. A 60% earnings beat headline will overcome a lot of investors fears of potential legal liability.
Not if the earnings beat is perceived as a product of improper accounting and/or tax reporting. Until these issues are clarified, any positive numbers EBIX produces will be viewed very skeptically in terms of their accuracy.. Those who have followed this stock for a long while know that most (if not all) of these accounting and other similar allegations are baseless, but the market will not view them as such until officially determined to be unfounded when you have Barons publishing articles stating that these allegations are true combined with many branches of both state and federal government now investigating EBIX and its officers for both regulatory and criminal violations and a a litany of civil suits against both the company and its officers.
I don't think they even need to beat. Just confirmation of their earnings number should be enough. After all, their historical EPS is around $.45 a quarter and we are looking at a company trading at a PE of 6. It doesn't get cheaper then this. Hopefully the CC will address what when wrong with the buyout and what management has done since to address this issue.