It's all about who blinks first. I don't blink when I feel that I am right. The longer the wait, the less likely anything important was found. The SEC has had information by subpeona for nearly 10 months. More than enough time to take action.
I agree with your conclusion, but not with the basis by you which your arrive at it. I also think that in the end the U.S. Attorney's investigation of EBIX will not yield anything too material negative against the company and that Raina will be found to have personally engaged in wrongdoing as it relates to the failed Goldman merger, but I am unsure how substantial the finding will be against Raina. However, inferring that the investigation will not result in anything material negative to EBIX simply based on the fact that the investigation has been going on for quite a while is flawed. These investigations can go on for a very long time and sometimes a grand jury is empaneled in secret to hear evidence which can take many months to conclude. I have seen many of these types of investigations go on for very long periods of time and result in serious charges being filed, minor charges being filed, and even no charges being filed, and I have seen these investigations go on for short periods with both serious charges being filed and ending quickly without any charges being brought. You really can place absolutely no weight on the length of the investigation as any indicator of its outcome.
My thoughts as well, Patient2invest. Common sense suggests that if there was blatant fraud/malfeasance going on then wouldn't SEC have stopped it, at least 10 months after being aware of it?
Although I can't pinpoint when, and given that short term price movements are notoriously hard to predict, I believe like value will be its own catalyst and the stock will eventually catch up with the fundamentals, and this belief remains unchallenged in my mind.
One more point I want to bring up - many posters here and no doubt many EBIX holders remain "worried" about the daily market price of EBIX. A true value investor ought to be more concerned about the fundamentals about the company - such as its competitive position, pricing power, sustainability, moat, etc, than whether how many puts or calls were bought or sold on a specific day. For instance, equal (if not more) effort should be allocated in finding out whether EBIX acquired a new customer as opposed to whether someone acquired massive puts on EBIX, as the former will be a better guide to the future stock performance than the letter.
This stock is going nowhere fast until the investigation is over. The only thing that could move this stock will be earnings as Shanti indicated or a large new sign up which is unlikely while this investigation is pending. If earnings are good, I expect the move to the upside will be mooted because the market will perceive the good numbers a function of improper accounting and tax treatment and thus discount the good number until the investigation ends. I also think that there is a very slim and unlikely chance this next earnings will be good in light of how revenues are probably off as a result of difficulties marketing during this investigation. More likely, earnings will be bad and the stock will be under even more pressure if the investigation does not end before then. EBIX is in a bad situation now even if all of the short attack allegations are ultimately proven false.