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Ebix Inc. Message Board

  • gtucker2 gtucker2 Oct 10, 2013 10:46 AM Flag

    At what price do the shorts start buying in earnest ? in panic mode ?

    I am wondering if this creps up to $12 PPS - will shorts awaken and start buying in earnest ?
    will it require 12.50 - or $13 ? ------ at some price - they will give up and rush to buy - and when that happens - if we longs don't rush to sell, this could bounce to $20 or $25 or $30 in little time

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    • Some shorts loaded up at a fairly low price in recent days. Last count was over 55% of float short as of 9/30, an increase from the 9/15 level. I don't know who would have lent that much to them. Insiders hold around 31% of float now. Fidelity Low Price Fund holds 7.17% with a new buy of 200K more shares as of July 31. I don't believe that Fidelity lends shares any more. The price must be increasing for borrowing; lenders are probably gouging them. They are in a big, big bind. With Bloomberg not issuing "news" for a while and the short's thesis not holding water and maybe about to collapse, I would be buying like crazy before anyone else decides to do the same.

    • I am not sure it is only just a share price issue which will cause those who are chiefly responsible for the short attack to bail and cover. If the share price gets too high, the shorts behind this attack have relied upon new negative articles to be published which bring the stock back down or at least limit its rise. It is true that these articles have been less effective lately which suggests that this strategy is starting to loose its effectiveness. However, I think what will give the shorts absolutely no choice but to bail and cover if the U.S. Attorney investigation closes without any negative material consequence to EBIX. This should make a strong statement to the market that the allegations in all of these negative articles are bogus and thus future articles will have absolutely no credibility. I don't see how the shorts can keep a strangle hold on this stock when they can no longer create fear through these articles because it is clear that their allegations are self-serving and bogus. I agree that this stock is primed for a meteoric rise once a probably short squeeze ensues. I also think that the stock once the squeeze starts in full earnest will jump to around $20 a share from its current price in a matter of no more than a couple of hours, particularly because that is the valuation that Goldman recently gave the company before the investigation was opened.. After that, who knows, but a spike to $30 or beyond is not out of the question.

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