this is the guy who wrote the recent bullish article for RAMPF... seems the sell-off on the earnings is a little overdone... i originally bought at .16 on the bullish article and had a nice quick profit... i'll continue to hold and may add some more down here at .15
"I was disappointed with the Q2 report - The biggest dissappointment was the stabilization at 53MW - it should have been higher and now the 9-14MW remediation is needed just to get to the 65 MW range. Assuming they can't get higher than that it will ding the NAV but not by a massive amount. I haven't re-run the numbers but the thesis should be intact provided the 53 MW is indeed stable and the remediation is successful - it should be as one of the wells was a former producer so I don't see a ton of risk there.
The analysts seem to be disappointed with Geysers and the write-down. Some fool (Raymond James I think) even valued it at $70 million. I valued it at zero and see the $6.4M net price as a windfall - partially offsetting the disappointing MW production.
I'm also thinking if they move ahead with the binary unity then it might fall under their 72MW PPA - e.g. 53MW + 9MW remediation + 10MW binary = 72MW.
Under 55 MW they are in default. Game over. Bankrupt. Everything lost.
Went through it with Nevada Geothermal and Blue Mountain Power Plant. Was supposed to be 50 MW net. Then was it was up and running.... unexpected temp declines. Need remediation... More wells drilled.... So on and so forth till they were in default.
Not saying where heading in the same direction but sure getting that deja vu feeling.
The stock will still have value because idiots will trade it but the company would be in default... That said even in default there is a chance they could sell all or part of the plant or come up with a way to keep going on