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Earthstone Energy, Inc. Message Board

  • johngunn51 johngunn51 May 10, 2013 2:21 AM Flag

    Earnings will suck

    Year to year comps will be bad. Production has lagged expectations, prices are down, costs are up and the one time benefits they got from land sales last year are not happening this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock fall further. I might be a buyer post earnings in the 11 dollar range based on a modest improvement in earnings in 2014 over the current. But no institution or analyst wants any part of this, pretty weird.

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    • realinvestmentstrategies realinvestmentstrategies May 10, 2013 10:12 AM Flag

      John, I think you’ve got the right issue, because there isn’t much clarity about the current financial status. The current stock price makes you wonder if there is a real problem. Even though I’ve noted share price manipulation from the Reg Sho site, there was a real seller earlier this week. Some one unloaded a few thousand shares.

      While production has lagged expectations, from the North Dakota production reports about half the 29 new wells listed in Earthstone’s annual meeting presentation are now online. But when you consider the last three quarters, sales and production haven’t been there and we all wonder why.

      On the positive BOE reserves have increased 41% to 1.895 million. We also have a statement from Ray on Feb 8th, 2013….. we believe the anticipated production from our recent drilling program should begin to be realized in the current quarter and we anticipate further recognition in the quarter ending June 30, 2013….

      In my analysis of several oil companies, Earthstone’s properties are valued at a much larger discount than any of the others when you compare the market cap of the share price to its BOE, discounted measure of cash flow & book value, etc. No analyst following Earthstone because it is too small.

      The 10K report should be out in about a month. I hope they file it, otherwise the shareholders might have a real problem.

    • Earnings will probably not be good on a year over year comp basis, I'm thinking about
      26 cents without the 12,000 boe from last quarter that was not clear whether it was in or not.
      Maybe 35 cents if it shows up this quarter. I believe based on the actual reported production numbers
      from Jan. Feb. March for Statoil in Banks, that this portion of ESTE's production will be up vs. last quarter
      if it all gets counted...... But in fact it is up vs. last quarter even with delayed well completions. Production in Montana does not look as good, but the reports there lag far behind, so who knows. All I know is all of this can be solved by cutting Ray's salary and laying off about nine employees. What are the board of directors doing here? Whether they know it or not, they are ultimately liable for letting the company be mis-managed. What is the indemnity of the corporation really worth in the end if they let this get out of hand? Do they think they will be protected? This is not Shell or BP guys. Shareholders are not going to be ripped off here without a big fight. Ray either needs a strategy that works, and he needs to tell us what that is and lay it out transparently, or this company needs to be restructured as a psuedo royalty trust company with no overhead that just monetizes Banks drilling for the next 4-5 years, and pays dividends to shareholders from that. Low cost, no strategy, and no overhead and payout the proceeds to shareholders. What we have now is Ray stripping all the dividends for himself and a kingdom building that doesn't seem to be paying off. I am willing to listen, but I have not heard much at all. Its been awful quiet. So, either he is in a quiet period trying to sell the company, and can make no announcements because the company is being quietly auctioned, or he has a real surprise plan but just cannot tell us yet, or he is ripping us off and wants to prolong it. This stock is worth at least $21.00 Run right, maybe $30.00.

    • Fellar, yer on the mark! Am glad I sold when it was $21 fer a tiny profit. Thissens been a DAWG fer some time. I check it ever now and then and am thankful I did not foller the hype. I suspect we'll see oil dip down into the uppern $80's after Juty 4th when summer drvin' season is headin' downt he backstretch. All them fellers and missys that have left the workforce (a corny reason fer the unemployment rate to be declinin') are not drivin' anywhere, much less to a job and such. Miles driven are down and some fleets are convertin' to natgas, even if very slowly. I suspect oil demand will slow in the USA even iffen it rises in the rest a the world. Simpleton is jest gettin' a fat salary fer treadin' water and doin' nothin' fer the sharehoplder. I smeeled theis Rat a spell back and am glad to have exited. Best wishes to you fellars and I hope things tunr around. Iffen it gets near the $12 mark I might get a #$%$ and date thissen again!

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