Hi Dad, I was just thinking about shorting an Index and I thought of a potential direct short you can research now in case events play out. Without going into wny, lets say there is a 'more than' chance of tropical hurricanes hitting the US coast. Should one hit Long Islad for instance the damages would be historical.
Now there is a federal flood insurance program, the question is do any Insurance Companys under right risk in excess of what is covered by the Fed's.Perhaps for the Wealthy on their chattel.
So thats it dude, look to see which companys have a down side with a hurricane
I am thinking of shorting the dow again...any reason why this is a bad move?
Odds of a really destructive hurricane hitting New York, Long Island, Boston are not that great. Canes' usually begin to weaken as they track north and pick up a lot of forward momentum. Moderate ones can sweep through and cause a lot of damage, but a Katrina like storm is pretty unlikely.
The farther south you go the more likely a catastrophic hurricane could strike. Gulf Coast, Miami, Savannah, Charleston are more likely. Many companies are located along those coasts, as well as big oil. Ag can also be a target of a large hurricane.
Super my boy, I covered all my shorts and actually bought almost 100k GE on Thursday. Probably sell it tomorrow. Let me give you a little more advice: put all your opinions aside and let market tell you what to do. 1100 was big on SPX. We are short term overbought. But that said the equity markets are the only way out of this mess. If FED can buy MBSs what makes you think they can't buy futures and juice the market? Bullish sentiment is not that great, good earnings if even only bottom line, Asia carrying the world, euro fears receding and maybe BP has it under control.
This market is a reversion to the mean market. Remember my short call on gold? Ballsy right? It's what everyone is doing. Long for extended charts and go the other way. If you want to short wait for 1150 on SPX. Get this weekends Barrons. Greece has to comply with IMF regs by mid August. They can't. Wait for more talk of euro crisis and then lay them out. Today I sold naked upside calls on Aapl, goog, x and others. I like selling the way out calls after a nice run and when market craps I sell puts. Play the tails as I think we simply trade in a range. For example, sell august 280 apple calls for 2 dollars now after this big run, or if market craps sell January 2011 aapl 150 puts for 3 dollars. Anyway good luck get out of ltbr