Larry, this is such a hard market to figure out. I have been just going with trend recently not trying to over think this thing. This is one reason LTBR is NOT a buy. Clearly no one is interested in this stock despite their audience with the WNA and the NRC, but that aside here are some thoughts: Clearly the FED and Japan are going to try and via monetary policy whether through interest rate manipulation or quantatative easing reflate the economy. The consequences of this are also apparent: Gold and sliver and other precious metals are breaking out and other asset classes are taking off i.e., equities. The adage don't fight the FED is in full force. HOWEVER, I am now beginning to think of some of the consequences. One such consequence which is a contrarian call is this (and totally mine btw): as the developed countries engage to a race to the bottom in terms of their currencies this could hurt the developing countries which are export driven (a weak yen or dollar makes for example Brazilian exports less competitive) as money has poured into these ecnomies I am beginning to look at EEV (a short emerging markets ETF...its a strange play and risky but I am looking at it as I also think we are approaching an overbought level). As for TBT, be careful of the employment number on Friday. A weak employment number (which I expect) will take TBT down and I will buy it there, after the news of future easing is made apparent. Again, without trying to over think this too much (remember Keynes statement the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent) I also think our employment problems are structural as opposed to cyclical; the result of increased productivity due to computers, cheap labor from abroad and the withering of our competitive advantage that comes from a educated work force (India, China, and soon Brazil will have just as many engineers etc). Thus, I am looking for some inflation (hence TBT) and higher input prices which will hurt ....Hell I could go on and on. In summary, go with the flow till it doesn't work than flip it. I am selling longs here but not yet going short.
Insta, if you believe the long bond worm has turned, consider TMV as well as TBT. TMV is the Direxion 300% inverse 30yr Treasury. After the QE2 announcement, this thing went up violently. It got my attention and I got in around 39. Are you in TBT?
Thanks for the thoughts Insta. Yes that Keynes quote is always in the back of my mind, and when the markets finally have gotten rational, I have usually long given up waiting. I would like to time it right just once. Many pundits have projected a turbulent market, and to me turbulence is not just one way. Of course when is as bigger question than IF. One sure needs to be nimble!
Simon Maierhofer, On Friday October 1, 2010, 7:58 pm EDT Talk about a two-faced month. On one hand, October has a nasty reputation of delivering market crashes, like in 1929, 1987 and 2008. On the other hand, October ushers in the sweet spot of the presidential election year cycle. Gains starting in the mid-term fourth quarter (2010) lasting until the pre-election first quarter (2011) have averaged around 15% since 1950.
My guess is the NASDAQ moving basically upward to a short term peak somewhere above 2600. About 10% up from here. Then a steep drop of at least 10%. Then a reversal to a long term uptrend BUT at a much shallower angle. The market has to get to a shallower up channel to have a long term uptrend. All those nervous trigger fingers have to get flexed both ways before they can relax a little.