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Johnson Controls Inc. Message Board

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  • alphahunter Jan 23, 2012 3:08 PM Flag

    I find JCI expensive

    Well JPM's downgraded today, and these guys don't use blue-sky 18x PE for their call, more like 11X on $3.20 2013.

    That's more in line with their comps.

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    • So JPMorgan has forecast EPS of $3.20 for Sept 2013? Their crystal ball must be entirely smog-free in that case. I looked at the S&P report on JCI, issued very recently. They don't yet show a forecast for Sept '13 EPS, they only have a Sept '12 forecast of $2.78 - they had a prior estimate of $3.03. But back in October, JCI's management predicted 2012 EPS of 2.85 - 3.00, so clearly all the analysts had to take their numbers down in the wake of last week's report.

      At $31, the P/E is 11.15 on an EPS of $2.78 for Sept 2012. Dividend coverage is decent, since annual dividend is only 72 cents. (so, 25.8% of earnings per share). It's possible that Sept-12 EPS numbers may be revised down one more time, so that may give investors an opportunity to buy shares at $30 or below. But barring any more surprises, the current multiple seems fair to me. S&P report shows that the lowest the P/E multiple has been is about 11.x in 2008.

      I'm curious - does anyone other than JPMorgan have an estimate for FY Sept'13 EPS? How and why did they forecast $3.20 for 2013?

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