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Aeterna Zentaris Inc. Message Board

  • ihorf ihorf May 22, 2004 4:11 AM Flag

    Hey kids, listen up!

    Instead of watching the ticker every 15 seconds ;-) here is the AELA sandbox for you to play in during the next 6-7 months:

    1. AELA added to the NASDAQ Biotech Index (^NBI): May 24, 2004

    2. AELA presents at UBS Conference: May 24, 2004
    http://www.ibb.ubs.com/Conferences/pdfs/Final%202004SpecPharm%20Agenda.pdf

    3. Cetrorelix Phase II data presentation at the 18th World Congress IFFS: May 25, 2004

    4. Annual shareholder meeting: May 26, 2004
    Note: ratification of the Right Plan will take place at the meeting. According to Aeterna, the rights issued to the shareholders under the Rights Plan will be exercisable only when a person or entity acquires or announces its intention to acquire more than 20% of the outstanding subordinate voting shares of Aeterna. Should such an acquisition occur, each right would, upon exercise, entitle a holder to purchase subordinate voting shares of AEterna at a 50% discount to the market price of AEterna's shares at the time.

    5. AELA presents results of the Phase I trial of Perifosine in combination with radiotherapy in patients with unresectable locally advanced solid tumors: ASCO, June 7, 2004. http://www.asco.org/ac/1,1003,_12-002557-00_18-0019361,00.asp

    6. Initiation of pivotal Phase III trial(s) of Cetrorelix in one or more of the following indications by Solvay: endometriosis, pre-surgical treatment of uterine myomas and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH): June � July 2004 (estimated)
    Note: Aeterna will receive undisclosed milestone payment from Solvay.

    7. Approval of Cetrotide in Japan for IVF: July - August 2004 (estimated)

    8. Initiation of Phase I trial for AN-152 � targeted anti-cancer compound, September-October 2004 (estimated)

    9. Launch of Phase II trial(s) for Perifosine in combination with radiotherapy as a treatment for multiple types of cancer: September - Ocbober 2004 (estimated)

    10. Interim results of Perifosine Phase II multiple cancer trials in North America (by Keryx): October � November 2004 (estimated)

    11. Atrium spin-off: November - December 2004 (estimated)

    12. In progress:

    a) Registration of Impavido (miltefosine) for treatment of leishmaniasis in Brasil (with Roche)

    b) Phase III trial of Neovastat for NSCLC (sponsored by NCI)

    c) Phase II trials of Perifosine in multiple cancers by Keryx (sponsored by NCI)

    d) Phase II trials of Teverelix in prostate cancer and BPH by Ardana

    e) Phase II of D-63153 in prostate cancer by Baxter

    f) Phase I trial of EP-1572 Growth Hormone Secretagogue (GHS) by Ardana

    g) Preclinical studies of new anti-angiogenic compounds ZEN-014 and ZEN-012

    h) Preclinical studies of ghrelin antagonists for treatment of obesity

    i) Drug Discovery program targeting novel small molecule anticancer drugs with following properties: apoptosis as a target, oral bioavailability, anti-angiogenic properties, efficacy in resistant tumors, less side effects than classic cytotoxic agents, low cost.

    j) M&A activity: open

    Last, but not the least: today I received a reply on one of my inquiries about developments at Aeterna from VP and CFO of Aeterna himself :-) Everything is confidential, as usual, but I feel that Aeterna is making giant leaps forward "as we speak" and shareholders will be handsomely rewarded in due time.

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    • ...for stupid small "sheeps". Ha-ha...

    • Thanks for the continuing info!

      What would be the effect of the Atrium spinoff to small position shareholders like myself. Would the value of Aeterna drop with the subtraction of the Atrium share value or are new shares just given to all shareholders. Im just trying to think long term and whether or not ill be holding this stock until then.

      Also, what are the potential pitfalls along the way with all the milestones for the year. Is seems like biotechs are very susceptible to big drops with any hint of bad news.

      I am torn between leaving money in one place long term or playing around with it. What is your estimate on share price by the end of the year?

      Also (last one I swear), what do you think about the Sanctura Approval on IDEV. That message board is chock full of confusion, though the signs seem positive. I bought a small position and am of course hoping for the best.

      Thanks!

      • 2 Replies to myarmada2001
      • <What would be the effect of the Atrium spinoff to small position shareholders like myself. Would the value of Aeterna drop with the subtraction of the Atrium share value or are new shares just given to all shareholders. Im just trying to think long term and whether or not ill be holding this stock until then.>

        I believe that Atrium spin-off will be beneficial to all AELA shareholders. I�m not an expert in this kind of transactions but common sense tells me that the following COULD happen:

        1. Every AELA shareholder could get Atrium IPO shares or rights to buy them at a discounted price.

        2. AELA could receive some cash from IPO proceeds.

        3. Atrium IPO could be underwritten by US investment bank. This could trigger US brokerage analyst coverage for AELA.

        4. After Atrium spin-off it could be easier for biotech analysts to valuate AELA (which could result in increased coverage) since its mixed business model will be gone and AELA would become a purely biopharmaceutical company.

        5. AELA�s pipeline valuation surpasses current share price by a wide margin so the AELA price after Atrium subtraction could not be affected

        6. Moreover, if AELA shareholders will get preferable treatment with regards to Atrium IPO shares (see item 1), AELA share price could even go higher (remember that a share price is governed by supply and demand).

        <Also, what are the potential pitfalls along the way with all the milestones for the year. Is seems like biotechs are very susceptible to big drops with any hint of bad news.>

        Pitfalls are too many with biotechs but good news is that AELA won�t report any Phase III data any time soon (those, if negative, usually cause big drops you are referring to). Looking at the estimated milestones for the year I tend to believe that in the next 6-7 months possibility of bad news is very remote.

        <I am torn between leaving money in one place long term or playing around with it. What is your estimate on share price by the end of the year?>

        I estimate AELA share price to roughly double or go even higher in the event of a major success with Perifosine in multiple Phase II trials.

        <Also (last one I swear), what do you think about the Sanctura Approval on IDEV. That message board is chock full of confusion, though the signs seem positive. I bought a small position and am of course hoping for the best.>

        I believe the Sanctura approval by FDA is highly probable (that's why I hold a small position in IDEV myself).

      • From my understanding, Atrium is a money making machine with over 100 million in revenue. No hurry to spin it off as Atrium provides cash for the bio research and acquisitions.

        The company's web site has valuable info. Here you will see that Cetrorelix usage in three indications is about begin Phase III trails. Note that Cetrorelix was successful in the three Phase II trails. The probability of three successful Phase II trails each with a different indication is essentially off-scale, i.e., very rare. The probability of failure in Phase III trails for each indication is the product of the probability of failure for each single indication. P = (p1)x(p2)x(p3). If the chance of failure in each case is 50% or p =0.5, the probability of all three failing is 0.125 or 12.5 %. If the chance of failure in each case is 0.25, then the probability of all three failing is 0.0156 or 1.56 %. Since Cetrorelix is already marketed for invitro fertilization procedures, its side effects, etc., are minimal or at least acceptable by FDA standards. The lack of serious side effects enhances the chance of Cetrorelix being OK'd for all three indications in the current Phase III trails. IMO this puts the probability of failure for each indication at 0.20 (or less) and the failure of all three trails at 0.008 or less than 0.8 %. Not bad odds.

    • Very nicely organized. Thanks

 
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