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Las Vegas Sands Corp. Message Board

  • patriotsblo patriotsblo Sep 15, 2010 9:29 PM Flag

    LVS's rally, let me offer a contrarian view

    especially this recent extension.

    What do MMs do when they want shares?

    They let fear days shake out shares. What do they do when they don't want shares? They step up to defend early on fear days, get sellers sitting down and volume is low and neutral to positive.

    Then on positive days, when a stock would rally anyway, they drag some off the table (happens with LVS), in strong rallies during the day, they drag some off the table (happens with LVS).

    They need volume to exit. They cannot hold strong negative volume, witness the flash crash day when LVS nose-dived.

    They don't want these shares in inventory beyond a mathematical formula, they want to sell what they have high.

    No other stock turns over it's available float every six days.

    My adviser tonight confirmed what I was seeing. He said he had never seen a rally hold on this light of volume.

    Something big is getting set into place one way or another, volume is the key, odds are greater it's to the downside...but hey who knows maybe the declining home sales and the record foreclosures and the record unemployment really mean we've turned the corner, doesn't look that way from here.

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    • equity volume drying up also means a sign of a reversal in trend.

      the market has been going down to sideways since MAY. Five months. They sold equities, over bought low interest paying bonds and pumped gold to $1500 !! those funds cannot maintain at those levels as the only fuel they have been using to push the correction is based on chaos, Europe collapsing, the world ending in 2012. Buy gold, a useless manipulated commodity that does not generate jobs or anything else but a meager 1/2% to loan it from Basle's basement coffers.

      My Contrarian view now is that this correction days are almost over, do not fight the Fed, it is just a matter of time and we will be taking off, in the past months corporations have raised billions in low paying bonds, refinance with lower rates . . . all of this will transcend in a benefit to all markets at some point. We are now at a point where the logs are slowly in fire but do not yet see the strong flames. Those flames will come strongly next year and you will see a very good rally. Now is the time to start buying while prices are still low.

      • 1 Reply to lasergame
      • <...My Contrarian view now is that this correction days are almost over, do not fight the Fed...>

        Well there is no doubt in my mind that he Fed has been manipulating this Market since the April 2009 meeting with Obama. Manipulations generally end badly, not well. We are in completely uncharted territory.

        The long term trend is down but the short term has been up. I just see a reversal in the short term.

        I accept your idea as a possible result, I get it. It's like the ending to a pennant formation, it's likely going somewhere.

        Now as to a sustained rally, volume strongly suggests "no" as do fundamentals of this economy; we still have MAJOR other shoes to drop, commercial real estate and loss of tax revenues from abandoned property and devaluation.

        P/Es are generally low but not typical for the end of a bear and the P/Es were generated from layoffs and cost cutting, which is not repeatable.

        But I do get your opinion. Rallies build on future, yet unseen, turn arounds, all I can say to that is I see too many new negatives in the pipeline and that turn around is one well-hidden MF in my view.

        I hope you're right, I am a market bear as a hedge, I stand to gain much more if the economy recovers but there is no foundation to build that house on.

    • Shouldn't be a concern...

      Market value lags Enterprise value by 30%

      LVS up 30% to about $41.89 still undervalue given the earnings growth....

      GL longs.

    • I for one won't bet against Asia. 60+% of my money is there with another 20+% in Brazil. Doesn't mean I don't love America it just means I know it is easier to ride the horse in the direction it is running

    • Stop posting your bearish view on LVS everyday. You were proving wrong so many time. Your short position is deep underwater. Would you care to talk about it? Flash crash was only happened to LVS! Please, stop distort the fact. What SKX has anything to do with LVS?
      Who is your advisor, Citi? Odds are you will be wrong again...LVS is moving higher with or without you. Just a single fact that MBS will rake in at least 1/2 of revenue of entire Las Vegas strip for the next 10 years is mind boggling to me!

      • 2 Replies to greenbull7777
      • Where did you see "half revenue of Vegas strip next 10 years"? I thought it was more than Vegas strip in 2012.
        Maybe I missread it.

      • < mind boggling to me! >

        Appears to be a pretty low hurdle.

        Why not put me on ignore? I can't move the stock, not trying to. I am not posting for people who are sure and have their minds made up.

        And what it has to do with Sketchers is both were MM manipulated stocks, far above fair value, even though SKX is years ahead of LVS now.

        When you buy 4-5 years into the future, you have to assume no bear market, no downturn, nobody realizes they can't take the money out of China and things go perfectly for all those years...just sayin'

        And the Flash crash treated different stocks quite differently, just as the downturn in 2008 didn't cause well run companies to lose 99% of their market capitalization...just sayin' again.

    • tomcheeks Sep 15, 2010 9:42 PM Flag

      Maybe, and maybe you are going to see something you have never seen before.

    • Concur. S&P's target is more realistic even with the existing optimistic view of Asian conditions based on available statistics holds.

45.875+0.455(+1.00%)10:18 AMEDT