Out of China you better sit up and take notice....Hang Seng did a complete inside out day and closed 460 points lower from the high on volume...The ShComp plunged again probing the 2008 lows.....This 7.5% growth in China is bogus along with all the other stats pointing to stable growth in China....People on the ground are struggling...These revenue numbers from macau are desperation attempts to get "their cash back" at the tables!!! Thats not good.......We may trade higher here on the week but a reversal is very near and the bottom is looking much lower...The Chinese govt has signaled their desire for less cash leaving China and spending inside of the country to increase internal consumption...Macau is a mechanism for cash to LEAVE china....The govt will implement a series of controls over this....That will not be good for casinos all around!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good luck..
Disclosure: Short 3500 shares LVS from an average 46.5
My interpretation of the data is different than yours as it relates to gambling in Macau... I choose to use an exact metric. Macau GGR. Notice GGR increased in Nov 2012 by almost the exact amount the China economy increased. Notice also that Macau GGR has done nothing but increase since they have been keeping track of it.
The rate of increase has slowed, yes... but it is still increasing. The rate of increase has slowed due to a number of things. Those reasons are big numbers; a stated policy by China's government to slow the economy; a change-over of the China government; the Bo Xilai corruption and murder scandal; Macau Border Gate congestion; and slowing table growth. All contributed to the slowing GGR growth.
Those GGR 'slowers' are being now being replaced with GGR 'growers'. Growth accelerators for Macau GGR are now starting to have an effect. China's economy has infact had a soft landing; China's government has changed; the BO scadal has been weathered; China's government is stimulating infrastructure projects and reducing real estate restrictions; there are more hotel rooms; more gaming tables with more coming in 2013; 24/7 Border Gate hours with more gates opening; and improved tourist transportation infrastructure.
I like the prospects for continued GGR increases...
GGR is a better indicator than the stupid monthly revenue which has many holes in the data.
But GGR is a 'post indicator'.
Some firms are doing their in-the-ground studies.
They are looking for first hand tell tale signs, such as border gate, VIP, mass market volumes,etc.
generally, they are positive and recommending buy.
Casino REITs are going to be an extremely hard sell to regulators...Penn stated their intention to become a REIT however other Casinos will wait and see how they are treated with the outcome from these regulators...These loopholes for REITs work for certain circumstances however casinos are much different games all together... Either way LVS has a long way to go before they decide the REIT status is for them ....!!!! Good Luck............