Vegas Stocks: The House Always Wins: LVS Breakout coming?
Vegas Stocks: The House Always Wins
The monthly chart of Las Vegas Sands is one that i have referred to periodically in this blog over the years. The jaw-dropping crash from roughly $150 down to a $1 handle during the 2007-2009 bear market had many thinking the major casino operator was on the brink of going out of business. However, a sharp snapback off the March 2009 lows put those fears on the backburner.
Over the next few years, we saw a textbook psychologically progression after a crash and subsequent snapback -- a flattening out period where each bit of bad news was absorbed increasingly better. As a result, Sands is still holding the lion's share of its bear market bottom snapback rally. **** Plowing through $60 is sure to get bulls increasingly giddy for a multi-year base breakout.
Earnings are coming up soon, but as long as $36 holds the double-dip Vegas bears are caught in a rundown here regardless.
... but it's stock doesn't reflect it since it's not pushing the metrics substantially higher yet.
Currently, the company is completing it's $150 million junket initiative, Cotai Central, and China is building trains and beginning to grow it's economy. LVS looks to be pushing those metrics very soon and the stock only partially reflects it.
In my opinion It has not one thing to do with metrics.
I was one of the fortunate few who participated in the substantial original move up in the casino stocks (LVS,MGM)to way over a $100 each. No, I didn't ride either LVS or MGM up to the highs. I just played the FAT part of the trade. But I was able to get short the stock of both MGM and LVS roughly 1.4% from high tic price. I rode both stocks down, way down. LVS to $12 and MGM to just under $5. From that point I waited, and waited, untill all the momentum to the downside had been run-out of the stock, at which time I bought a substantial amount of stock, both LVS ($2.50s)& MGM($3.50s) of which I still hold. I did hold WYNN from around $24 when I purchase LVS & MGM on the lows but I sold WYNN around$120. Now I only trade around WYNN, as I have enough net net long exposure to the sector.
My point, its all about momentum... If your wanting to try and create great wealth in anything. PERIOD! End of the story. Fundamentals are always keep captivate by the markets & analysts wiliness to write reports for the (trading)house, as well as the economics of the health of the economy...meaning risk on risk off to bet... on the continuation of strong fundaments (or recovering fundm)...always way to far in the distance to matter. I specialize in picking market tops and bottoms. I was fortunate over the past decade to pick many of the high flying sectors in the markets. Riding them up and playing the risk reward psychology to betting against the trends when stocks (or futures) bottoming or topping. I use the software I developed based on compression of time and price You'll never find me on tilt!....LVS and MGM HIGHER