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  • bjspokanimal bjspokanimal Feb 9, 2013 11:04 AM Flag


    ... although, I would temper it a bit... mostly sunny and sugar-free lollipops for me, I'm afraid.

    I would add that the drop from $62 probably included some things like disappointment that the 19% market share of early 2012 tailed off somewhat during late spring and summer and was compounded, as you say so well, by the continued "soft landing" in China. The slow ramp of Cotai Central was also disappointing investors with outsized expenses for un-opened phases being piled up against thin revenues from the newly opened phase 1.

    I would certainly take issue with your contention that the "chinese economy is recovering sharply"... as we've only seen a move in GDP from 7.4 to 7.9% so far and exports are expanding only in fits and starts. The PMI numbers are now above 50 for both manufacturing and services but they're nowhere near the 60 reading that would constitute a "sharp" recovery.

    But this is not to quell optimism. I LIKE what the politburo is doing in this cycle because it's less likely to "flame out" like the 2010 recovery did due to over-heating. They seem determined not to let this one overheat and that's good for Sands because it would be nice to see a more "sustained" recovery between the time (now) that Cotai Central is fully opened and the day 2 years from now when the NEXT resort opens... which looks to be Galaxy Phase II.

    2, full years as the one gaming concessionaire in Macau that has a bigger hotel inventory than all of the other gaming concessionaires COMBINED is a lot to be optimistic about... especially if the economies of the far east can put up a nice economic rebound of the sort that the U.S. economy can no longer muster.


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