Nevada State Gaming Control Board Reports Dec Vegas Strip Gaming Win Up 13.49%
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Convention book going well this month too and MGM does well when Vegas is busy as we all know.
Interesting to note the woman doing convention bookings for LVS was bullish on "another good early season this year"... last year she was mopey about the book, ADRs, outlook.
All that is great for LVS and WYNN as well... but no one is going to benefit from improving economic conditions in China and EU like LVS.
China said its exports grew 25 percent in January from a year ago, the strongest showing since April 2011 and well ahead of market expectations for a 17 percent rise, while imports also beat forecasts, surging 28.8 percent on the year.
Meanwhile, German data showed a 2012 surplus that was the nation's second highest in more than 60 years.
The Q4 results indicated that the widening gap between the share price of Sands China and that of LVS was quite justified. Macau was the star of Q4, in most people's eyes when looking at the headline figures for the quarter.
Of course, we've already been talking about how deceiving the Q4 Marina Bay numbers were to anyone who is only looking casually at the figures because the gaming volumes spiked hugely but some of the worst table hold since MBS opened made the unit's earnings look quite poor.
Conversely, LVS's Q4 Vegas results WERE poor... no real silver linings there... just a poor quarter in Vegas.
So, when trying to decipher whether or not Q1 is looking good for LVS "relative" to Sands China, I'd say it looks very good.
The reasoning is pretty obvious from December's Vegas gaming revenue growth revival of 13.49%. I was wondering in November how a 50% increase in U.S. airline reservations for the holidays would impact Vegas and I guess this is the answer to that question. Not much reason to expect a lull in January given the momentum... every table was full at Venetian on the Saturday before MLK holiday when I was sitting at the blackjack table trying to look like an amateur.
Rob Goldstein was trying to stroke expectations downward for anticipated Q1 Marina Bay VIP gaming volumes in the conference call. The rationale was that MBS's VIP play is "thin" and can fluctuate tremendously from quarter to quarter...
... but the Q4 spike in those volumes was over 50% YOY... and nobody ever suggested that a decent chunk of that isn't a permanent share of new business.
So, in spite of what I think will be solid macau growth, I expect to see LVS close the PPS gap with Sands China a bit this quarter... because the lowered expectations at Marina Bay and Vegas are beginning to abate to some degree now.
... I tend to agree with you. Maybe there was a lot of concern that the economy would slow if Romney were elected and started working to lower the deficits and curb the fed's massive money-printing campaign.
Now that Obama is safely re-elected, the continuation of out-of-control deficits and money printing means that it remains PARTY TIME!
In fact, just the other day, he said he doesn't want to cut spending now because it would hurt the economy...
... maybe somebody could tell me when, in the future, spending cuts won't hurt the economy. Given that we never see annual growth above 2% anymore... if not now... WHEN?