IBD's piece on the market share breakdown for the first 10 days of march needs to be kept in perspective.
Sands leads the SAR in mass market business. The biggest mass market event of the year is Lunar New Year, which was last month. Sand's market share for February reflected that event. One would expect that the company's market share would be greater in February than in march.
Still, I would expect that Sands would be pushing it's share to 21 to 22% in a "typical" month now that Cotai Central is fully opened. While it can take a few months to fully optimize and balance the use of the 200 new tables, as well as to cross-fertilize business via the other new facilities, I would be disappointed if Sands did not achieve a weighted average 22% share by summer.
There were also two "FULL" weekends in the first 10 days of march. That would significantly inflate those 10 days vs the full month. I wouldn't expect all of march to hit 30 billion MOP.
I would speculate that the new VIP rooms could come with an initial period of additional rolling chip payout incentives that favor the VIP room operator.
I also agree with what has been said about market share at least matching the percentage of total tables. That should be the new metric used to measure the effectiveness of Sands China management. (To current management's credit, the harm done to Sands market share by the Jacobs' debacle should be over as noted by Sands increased share of GGR from the lows. This can easily be seen in ABC's cumulative market share post for all casinos.)
I would say LVS market share would already be above the percentage of total tables if LVS percentage of Mass to VIP play was equal to the average in Macau. However from what we know, LVS has a higher than average percentage of the higher margin Mass Market business which as we know is 4x more profitable. Therefore market share isn't exactly the best metric to measure profitability or how they are doing.
For example, I would rather have 15% market share of all mass market vs 30% market share of all VIP business. Although the 15% market share number wouldn't look too good, it would actually generate twice the profit compared to a 30% market share comprised of all VIP due to the 4x more profitability of Mass Business.
Remember; "Profit wise, a 10% market share comprised of mass play is equivalent to a 40% market share comprised of VIP play. Just something to keep in mind."
It would be nice if the monthly market share numbers were broke out into two categories (Mass and VIP) Then one could more easily track the progress and compare the operators, but market share alone doesn't give the full picture.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
With all due respect you are being way too forgiving with respect to LVS market share at less than 20%, although they have 27% table allocation. They are simply not delivering on sequential market share improvement relative to their table allocation.
The metric we LVS investors should be watching is sequential market share improvement, especially with the recent additional of 200 tables, and the additional hotel rooms. Spok, it is simply not improving to thelevel it should be. VIP room upgrades are complete, additional hotel rooms, et, etc, etc.
Thereis simply WAY too much difference between table allocation of 27% and marekt share, in early Maech at less than 20%. Honestly...what the heck is happening, how can they be so poor in terms of market share relative to table allocation, especially after ALL properties are fully functional.
....yes i know share also includes the win percent variable, but still this is poor performance, no other way around it...they simply MUST improve thwir share with such a dominance in tabales and the insane dominance in hotel rooms!!,
Marketshare is not purely a reflection of table count. LVS has MANY more mass and premium mass tables then VIP. VIP tends to drive the headline revenue number as seen during CNY when VIP stayed away and the GGR was "disappointing". But at the same time as we know this is a higher margin business so its not disappointing at all.
Yes LVS added 200 more tables but if they are mass or premium mass their respective revenues maybe equal to another operators 20-40 VIP tables...and thus a larger % of revenues equal more marketshare for other vendors. But as we know more marketshare, ie more VIP means more junket payments, increaesed volatile swings due to luck, and more free rooms, etc given to patrons. Managment and Stern Agee talked to this about how all the extra rooms give Sands the chance to capture more of the "paying" hotel customer since they are not giving the rooms away for free.
So in summation, lower market share due to being in a higher margin business and actually getting paid for hotel rooms trumps a top line number in regards to market share.