The projected revenue in total for Macau in the year 2020 is 100 billion U.S dollars. As China continues to grow and exapnd their middle class they will also increase the number of millionaires in China as well. More heavy hitters and millions more middle class Chinese citizens with extra money and time on their hands. I have seen numbers that will put LVS in Macau making about 42 cents from every dollar being spent and gambled on that Island. Just stop and think about that for a moment. If this comes to reality just the amount of gross revenue from Macau could turn into 42 billlion dollars in 2020. Think about where the stock price should be at that time? The size of special dividends at that time? How many shares LVS may have bought back by then? The size of the quarterly dividend at that time? This is a possible reality in just seven years. And that is just in Macau. If Sands is pulling in another 25 billion only in all of it's other business around the globe...folks this is going to go huge. Gigantic. The price of the stock today is a joke compared to where this is going.
Nice summary... and pretty darned accurate from my perspective.
Regarding project completion dates, I think the only 2015 completion will be Galaxy phase 2, however.
If Sands gets going on a 4th, Cotai Central tower, however (there were 4 in the original design), the site prep is done so it "could" be finished before 2016.
I don't see Parisian being completed before early 2016. Too much competition for scarce labor and resources. It's tempting to think otherwise, but remember the Cotai Central timeline and the labor shortage simply from competing with Galaxy phase 1 ONLY. Now, you've got a half dozen projects all planning on opening by 2016 and the reality is that there's going to be a "construction resources train wreck", IMHO, that's going to extend virtually everybody's time lines.
Indeed, Wynn has already pushed there's several months, and they're still pounding pilings.
I don't think the table cap is a bad thing. What it does do is cap the number of employees working tables and caps their expense. Revenues can still grow if an operator has
1) Flexibility to transfer tables from one casino to another
2) Flexibility to switch tables from Mass to VIP (or the other way around)
3) Flexibility to adjust table minimums on Mass tables - higher minimums mean that players lose the same amount faster and then make room for others to lose money.
IMHO Sands has the most flexibility and Wynn the least.
Regulator Tam has said the that the 3% cap isnt a hard number but they will have to increase the table count significantly as you point out. LVS looks to still have a year or 2 of domination before the other resorts open.
My comment would be along the "lines" of Border Crossings being choke points causing lines. With all the new tourist transportation infrastructure, rooms, tables and shopping; Macau better get their borders in order to service tourist demand. This CNY's lines at border crossings pointed to their current inadequacy. Just think how many more people be able to easily cross the 25 mile bridge when it is completed. My concern is if the borders are not fixed, the additional IR-casino capacity will cannibalize from each other.