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Las Vegas Sands Corp. Message Board

  • bjspokanimal bjspokanimal May 1, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    First Glance... the "Year over Year" smokescreen

    LVS adjusted EPS beat last year's $.70 by just one penny.

    The key here, was that in Q1 last year, LVS played very lucky...

    ... and in Q1 this year, LVS played un-lucky.

    If there were ever a time to adjust for table hold... THIS IS THAT TIME, Virginia.


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    • The earnings press release was in-consistent.

      As I said, with the exception of Venetian macau, LVS played significantly unlucky, including Singapore by more than a full percentage vs a year ago.

      When they show the impact of hold-adjusted profit vs non-hold adjusted, they show almost a 5% difference... but then they suggest that the difference in EPS is only a penny (72 cents vs 71), which appears to be an error on the release, since it's inconsistent with both the profit summary AND the relative holds on the resorts.

      What IS clear is that hold adjusted, this year beat last year's Q1 by easily more than 10 to 12 cents a share adjusted and by closer to 15 cents un-adjusted (GAAP). It was a solid quarter, but well short of a blowout.

      During the CC, Goldstein was talking about premium mass work-in-process that indicated that quite a few of the new, 200 table allocation is still being positioned. There is still a lot of optimization going on that'll likely be going on all year. Of course, Q2 will be a full quarter of Cotai Central and, as it turns out, more incremental tables in place than I would have figured.

      I liked how LVS did in vegas outside of gaming. It was consistent with what MGM's Jim Murren was saying on CNBC last week. As the wealth effect continues to improve stateside via the housing recovery, I expect continued improvement in Vegas even if GDP remains sluggish and the labor force remains near record lows given the mis-management in DC.

      There should be a little enthusiasm about Parisian being 6 to 9 months ahead of Wynn cotai on the construction timelines.


    • Did you hear that Spok???

      They said the Singapore VIP table hold will eventually be in their favor and/or normalize and will someday get 3.2% and will be 2.8% over time , but to date has averaged 2.6%

      Sheldon misquoted that they take bets of up to 1B Singaporean dollars instead of 1M. Laughter ensued!

      • 2 Replies to ksa_97
      • Yes, I did, ksa. Marina Bay held 3.58% last year in VIP... which was a major reason why Q1 did 70 cents of EPS in that quarter. MBS has played unlucky every quarter since, and it lowers expectations among the casual investor crowd.

        Look at the MBS rolling-chip volumes... a whopping +42.2% over last year's Q1! That just shows that the Q4 increase in MBS VIP volumes of 64% was no fluke... VIP is booming in Singapore... and I've been saying that ad-nauseum for the past 3 months even as people keep talking about "stagnant singapore"...

        ... NOT.


      • Did you hear his next comment after that about charities? Hilarious.


    • Looks like Venetian was the only facility that played lucky... and CC played average.
      At first glance, this report looks good, but not great.
      It's good to beat the consensus by a good 4 cents on relatively unlucky play in the gaming dept.

    • Wynn had a much better ER and ;the market rewarded them.

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