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Las Vegas Sands Corp. Message Board

  • bjspokanimal bjspokanimal Aug 16, 2013 11:17 AM Flag

    Now is a Good Time for ABC to Post 2 Years Worth of GGR Market Shares

    Over the past year, abc would post a few years worth of Macau market shares on occasion. Month to month, the figures are pretty skewed because they are not hold adjusted and can reflect a lot of "luck" from month to month.

    Since Q3 began, we've seen some danm good numbers. Sands reported macau resort visitation for July that surged 34% year-over-year. Given that yoy visitation traffic increases to the SAR overall are routinely in the single digits, that is an outstanding achievement.

    Similarly, Sands reported market share was above 22% in July, and given the reality that any one month can jump around with luck or lack thereof, the August channel checks are confirming it with a sands share above 22% in august as well. Clearly the ramp on central coati continues to build as events increasingly book and cross-fertilization of patronage creates repeat business. We only need to look back 23 months from today to recall the nadir of Sand's market share, which was under 14% in September of 2011 in the wake of the damage wreaked by Steve Jacob's mishandling of the subsidiary.

    For the SAR as a whole, 15 to 20% GGR growth is translating into 30% mass gaming growth on a regular basis, and Sands leads the SAR in mass gaming...

    ... but a 34% surge in actual flip-flops on the ground patronage... THAT is HUGE, and with any kind of normal luck this quarter, SCL profits have a shot at blowing the doors off the estimates.

    Spok

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    • Update with mid Aug #s.

      ................... SJM .. Sands . Galaxy . MPEL . WYNN . MGM
      Jan-2011 .. 31.0% .. 18.0% . 11.0% . 15.0% . 14.0% . 10.5%
      Feb-2011 .. 32.0% . 18.0% ... 9.0% . 15.0% . 15.0% . 11.0%
      Mar-2011 .. 34.0% . 16.0% . 12.0% . 14.0% . 14.0% . 11.0%
      Apr-2011 .. 30.0% . 17.0% .. 9.0% .. 19.0% . 16.5% . 11.0%
      May-2011 . 33.6% .. 15.4% . 13.6% .. 13.6% . 12.7% . 11.1%
      Jun-2011 .. 29.0% . 16.0% . 15.5% .. 14.0% . 15.0% . 10.5%
      Jul-2011 ... 28.0% . 14.0% . 19.0% .. 16.0% . 15.0% .. 8.0%
      Aug-2011 .. 27.0% . 14.0% . 20.0% . 15.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Sep-2011 ... 29.9% . 13.1% . 19.1% .. 17.4% . 10.9% . 9.6%
      Oct-2011 .. 26.0% . 14.0% . 21.0% .. 15.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Nov-2011 . 27.0% . 16.0% . 20.0% . 13.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Dec-2011. . 27.0% . 16.0% . 20.0% . 14.0% . 14.0% . 9.0%

      --
      Jan-2012 .. 27.0% .. 19.0% . 19.0% . 13.0% . 13.0% . 10.0%
      Feb-2012 .. 28.5% .. 19.0% . 17.0% . 13.5% .. 12.5% ... 9.5%
      Mar-2012 .. 27.0% . 17.0% . 20.0% . 14.0% . 12.0% . 10.0%
      Apr-2012 .. 25.0% .. 18.0% . 21.0% . 13.5% .. 12.5% . 10.0%
      May-2012 . 29.0% .. 17.0% . 20.0% . 12.0% . 11.0% . 11.0%
      Jun-2012 .. 26.0% .. 18.0% . 23.0% . 13.0% . 12.0% ... 9.0%
      Jul-2012 ... 26.0% .. 22.0% . 19.0% . 13.0% .. 11.0% ... 9.0%
      Aug-2012 .. 26.0% .. 19.0% . 21.0% . 13.0% .. 12.0% .. 10.0%
      Sep-2012 ... 27.0% .. 18.0% . 18.0% . 14.0% .. 13.0% .. 10.0%
      Oct-2012 ... 26.9% .. 20.9% . 19.2% . 14.0% .. 10.1% .. 8.9%
      Nov-2012 ... 27.5% .. 20.8% . 19.2% . 13.8% .. 10.1% .. 9.6%
      Dec-2012 ... 26.0% .. 21.0% . 18.0% . 13.5% .. 10.0% .. 11.0%

      --
      Jan-2013 .. 26.9% .. 20.1% . 18.8% . 14.2% .. 11.1% ... 8.9%
      Feb-2013 .. 25.5% .. 21.5% . 18.6% . 12.5% .. 11.5% . 10.1%
      Mar-2013 .. 27.6% . 20.6% . 18.6% . 13.4% . 11.1% . 8.7%
      Apr-2013 .. 25.9% .. 21.9% . 17.6% . 16.3% .. 9.4% . 8.9%
      May-2013 . 24.3% .. 20.4% . 18.8% . 13.2% . 12.5% . 10.8%
      Jun-2013 .. 23.0% .. 21.0% . 18.0% . 14.0% . 12.0% ... 11.0%
      Jul-2013 ... 24.6% .. 22.8% . 19.7% . 13.2% .. 10.2% ... 9.5%
      Aug-2013 .. 22.9% .. 23.1% . 17.5% . 14.2% . 10.3% . 12.0%

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • History of Market Share:

      ................... SJM .. Sands . Galaxy . MPEL . WYNN . MGM
      Jan-2011 .. 31.0% .. 18.0% . 11.0% . 15.0% . 14.0% . 10.5%
      Feb-2011 .. 32.0% . 18.0% ... 9.0% . 15.0% . 15.0% . 11.0%
      Mar-2011 .. 34.0% . 16.0% . 12.0% . 14.0% . 14.0% . 11.0%
      Apr-2011 .. 30.0% . 17.0% .. 9.0% .. 19.0% . 16.5% . 11.0%
      May-2011 . 33.6% .. 15.4% . 13.6% .. 13.6% . 12.7% . 11.1%
      Jun-2011 .. 29.0% . 16.0% . 15.5% .. 14.0% . 15.0% . 10.5%
      Jul-2011 ... 28.0% . 14.0% . 19.0% .. 16.0% . 15.0% .. 8.0%
      Aug-2011 .. 27.0% . 14.0% . 20.0% . 15.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Sep-2011 ... 29.9% . 13.1% . 19.1% .. 17.4% . 10.9% . 9.6%
      Oct-2011 .. 26.0% . 14.0% . 21.0% .. 15.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Nov-2011 . 27.0% . 16.0% . 20.0% . 13.0% . 13.0% . 11.0%
      Dec-2011. . 27.0% . 16.0% . 20.0% . 14.0% . 14.0% . 9.0%

      ---
      Jan-2012 .. 27.0% .. 19.0% . 19.0% . 13.0% . 13.0% . 10.0%
      Feb-2012 .. 28.5% .. 19.0% . 17.0% . 13.5% .. 12.5% ... 9.5%
      Mar-2012 .. 27.0% . 17.0% . 20.0% . 14.0% . 12.0% . 10.0%
      Apr-2012 .. 25.0% .. 18.0% . 21.0% . 13.5% .. 12.5% . 10.0%
      May-2012 . 29.0% .. 17.0% . 20.0% . 12.0% . 11.0% . 11.0%
      Jun-2012 .. 26.0% .. 18.0% . 23.0% . 13.0% . 12.0% ... 9.0%
      Jul-2012 ... 26.0% .. 22.0% . 19.0% . 13.0% .. 11.0% ... 9.0%
      Aug-2012 .. 26.0% .. 19.0% . 21.0% . 13.0% .. 12.0% .. 10.0%
      Sep-2012 ... 27.0% .. 18.0% . 18.0% . 14.0% .. 13.0% .. 10.0%
      Oct-2012 ... 26.9% .. 20.9% . 19.2% . 14.0% .. 10.1% .. 8.9%
      Nov-2012 ... 27.5% .. 20.8% . 19.2% . 13.8% .. 10.1% .. 9.6%
      Dec-2012 ... 26.0% .. 21.0% . 18.0% . 13.5% .. 10.0% .. 11.0%

      ---
      Jan-2013 .. 26.9% .. 20.1% . 18.8% . 14.2% .. 11.1% ... 8.9%
      Feb-2013 .. 25.5% .. 21.5% . 18.6% . 12.5% .. 11.5% . 10.1%
      Mar-2013 .. 27.6% . 20.6% . 18.6% . 13.4% . 11.1% . 8.7%
      Apr-2013 .. 25.9% .. 21.9% . 17.6% . 16.3% .. 9.4% . 8.9%
      May-2013 . 24.3% .. 20.4% . 18.8% . 13.2% . 12.5% . 10.8%
      Jun-2013 .. 23.0% .. 21.0% . 18.0% . 14.0% . 12.0% ... 11.0%
      Jul-2013 ... 24.6% .. 22.8% . 19.7% . 13.2% .. 10.2% ... 9.5%

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Has anyone seen abc around lately?

 
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