August GGR, market share, and a little something special for LVS
According to our checks, August table-only gross gaming revenue (“GGR”) is MOP24.0b through August 25. Including slots, the GGR run-rate for August is MOP30.9b or +18% YoY, slightly below the all-time monthly GGR record set in March of this year (MOP31.3b). We tighten our YoY August GGR forecast to +17% to +19% from +17% to +20%.
July visitor arrivals to Macau were +4.9% YoY, driven by a +14.0% increase in visitation from Mainland China. Mainland China visitation now accounts for ~65% of total visitation versus ~60% for the same period last year.
YoY visitation to the Island has increased each of the last 6 months (+4.3% ytd). From May CY12 to January CY13, Macau had shown 9 months of consecutive YoY visitation declines. We expect positive visitation trends to continue through the remainder of the year on the heels of completed infrastructure projects (Guangdong/Zhuhai intercity mass transit, increased checkpoints at the Zhuhai border, etc) and the relaxation of certain visa policies (migrant worker applications).
Given its peer-leading hotel capacity and weighting to the mass market, we believe LVS will be a market share gainer as visitation momentum continues, and accelerates, into holiday periods.
Market Share. According to our checks, table-only market share August 1 through August 25 was: SJM at 24.2% (vs slot inclusive July share of 24.6%), Galaxy at 17.7% (vs 19.7%), LVS at 22.7% (vs 22.8%%), MPEL at 14.4% (vs 13.2%), WYNN at 10.9% (vs 10.2%), and MGM at 10.1% (vs 9.5%).
It's encouraging that Sands has averaged over 22.8% market share for almost 2 months running.
A one-month read does not provide any kind of a trend, given that GGR share reads are not hold-adjusted and can be skewed by as much as 2, or even 3 percentage points by "luck".
With august almost matching the July share number... and July registering it's huge patronage surge of 34% in Sand's cotai resorts... the 2-month share read is starting to look like a rock-solid indication of a substantial surge in business in Q3.
Well I have added quite a few more shares as this pps must be a coiled spring. No reason for LVS to lag so much over the last few months. Can't understand it but obviously MMs trying to control as it held up well last week so I think they are waiting to spring the trap on sellers....
Interesting in that what once was divided in 1/2 being SJM LVS Galaxy -- MPEL WYNN MGM is now divided in 1/3 SJM LVS -- Galaxy MPEL -- WYNN MGM.. the top 1/3 comprises of 46.9% market share.. the second 1/3 32.1% and the bottom 1/3 21%.. It will be interesting to see the effect of the Galaxy expansion and MPEL expansion of COD plus Studip City Project.. One thing for sure is SJM's 30%+ market share days are over.. I would expect it to be more of a top 4 in SJM LVS Galaxy MPEL evenly dividing 80% market share with WYNN MGM splitting the other 20%.. MPEL at a new ALL-TIME HIGH today!