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Global Partners LP Message Board

  • jillbowels jillbowels Jan 21, 2011 11:25 AM Flag

    Why the drop 2012-2013?

    Why is GLP earnings est @ $3.13 in 2012 and $1.61 in 1013? Company is expanding.

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    • A few guesses, none of them educated.

      The company's web site shows that there are 5 analysts covering GLP, all with big firms.

      E*Trade (I think that's where you got your numbers) states that they have 5 analyst estimates for Q4 2010, but only 2 for all of 2011, which makes you think the others are waiting for Q4 numbers to come out before they release their estimates for 2011, ignoring 2012. So maybe the $ 1.61 estimate is only 1 analyst. E*Trade doesn't show (at least I couldn't find) how many analysts E*Trade was averaging for 2012. So maybe you've got a lowball freak out there as the only estimate.

      Second guess, related to the first - Yahoo shows 5 estimates for 2011, averaging $ 2.15. (Yahoo shows 5 for 2011, compared to 2 for E*Trade, so my second guess is that E*Trade hasn't updated it numbers recently) The range of estimates, tho, is interesting - from a low of $ 1.38, which sounds nonsensical, to a high of $ 2.80. So maybe the guy who's estimating $ 1.38 is the only one out there with a 2012 estimate, and he's at $ 1.61, which would be a nice increase from his lowball 2011 estimate.

      I have a few more guesses, but I forget them just now. They weren't worth much, anyway. My real thought is this - GLP has tons of revenue, since revenue is based on the price of oil, which is high just now (and for the foreseeable future, I guess). But GLP's net margins are really tiny. With $ 8 billion in revenue and only 20 million or so shares outstanding, a 0.1% change in margin is worth 40 cents of EPS. No one can predict the margins with that degree of accuracy, especially considering the newly acquired gas station business with no track record. So I think all of the estimates are guesses, even management's. And considering GLP's small size, I kind of doubt that the investment banks assign their senior people to analyze GLP's numbers. So I'm more interested in how this hard winter is affecting Q4 2010 and Q1 2011 than I am in 2012 or 2013 for now.

      I know this doesn't help, but it's the best I've got for GLP.

      • 1 Reply to jrad52
      • Actually it does help. It makes sense to me. My guess was that they had some kind of loan due or something...I like your explanation better. I only have small position...about 275 shares, had about 2500, but I sold end of year to balance some losses for tax time. Looking at RBCAA, good divvy history. Bought a little LTXC Friday. GLPis one of those stocks that you don`t see alot of up and down. You shake your head once in a while when the market goes up 125 pts and GLP goes down 10 cents.Then the market will tank and GLP will go up a quarter!All the while we are getting 50 cents/ quarter for watching! Hopefully prosperous New Year...good luck

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