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Global Partners LP Message Board

  • jrad52 jrad52 Feb 2, 2011 4:49 PM Flag

    Preliminary Q4 numbers

    GLP also just filed an 8-K with preliminary Q4 numbers, I assume in support of the offering. Kind of disappointing. The gas station deal closed on Sept 30, so the business was here for the entire quarter. Interest expense and depreciation expense were both up as a result of the deal, which was to be expected. But before those expenses, it looks like EBITDA wasn't all that much greater than Q4 2009. I expected the higher expenses, but I thought they would be offset by higher income.

    Maybe I'm reading too quickly.

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    • i didn't mean to imply you were short either, sorry.

      I think the DCF power of the entity is very good going forward, similar to how CPNO, LGCY etc have to get their acts together to get coverage ratio above 1.

    • assume start up expenses like it says of a few million so the acquisitions make 0 in their first qtr of ownership. thats how it reads to me.

      regardless they generated DCF of $45.9m which on prior share count of 19.18 would be $2.39 per share versus $2.00 or so they distributing so we have great coverage while they ramp higher their profitability on acquisitions.

      if you assume another 3m shares from new offering which will be used to pay down debt (a good thing), you get at very least DCF of around $2.05-2.10 per share so we still have excellent coverage over 1.0 (versus a lot of other names like CPNO, NRGY, LGCY which are below 1.0).

      As they ramp their acquisition profitability, we should get increased distributions in 2011 and beyond is my thought. around 27 its a buy again as yield is back to 7.5%

      • 1 Reply to lucky_lucy12361
      • This doesn't really matter. Investing in MLPs requires an understanding that the LPs (that's us) have very few rights, including rights to information.

        But the disclosure of the preliminary financial results is disgraceful. No mention of sales, no mention of how the new gas station business is doing, no mention of how the higher energy prices are affecting GLP's need to finance receivables or inventory, not much more than guesses about DCF and income. DCF was down almost 20% from Q4 2009, and the explanation is "adverse conditions" and fewer buying opportunities in the distillates business? They could have done better than that. And if they couldn't, they should have waited until they had better numbers to do the secondary.

        Normally, I wouldn't care. But I am really concerned about the gas station business, where GLP has no track record. I don't see this as the normal MLP overnight offering, because of the new business, which we know nothing about.

        But it doesn't matter, I guess. Someone will buy the units anyway.

    • What's going on? First, they announce a seconday and then a shortfall in Q4 earnings. Do they think investors are idiots?

 
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