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Global Partners LP Message Board

  • jrad52 jrad52 Oct 13, 2011 10:00 PM Flag

    How about this for an explanation?

    In Feb of 2011 and Dec of 2010, GLP sold 4.5 million units at prices between $ 25.50 and $ 27.50. Presumably some of the buyers in those secondaries have already sold their units, but not all. As we get towards the end of the year, we should see more selling by these holders to trigger their capital losses, especially if the holders need short-term capital losses. (Of course, I'm not sure how many people need losses this year.) So maybe GLP stays weak for another month or 2, and then a rebound.

    But rebound to where? There are 22 million units outstanding, so the annual distribution is $ 44 million, and there is a very small IDR payment. With GLP grossing around $ 8 - $ 10 billion, you would think they could squeeze out enough cash flow to continue paying the distribution, but I see no sign of any increase. If we have a miserable winter this year in the northeast, and especially if oil prices drop, maybe GLP will do OK, but I can't see much good happening. But even a shaky $ 2 distribution should support a price higher than $ 15/$ 16.

 
GLP
38.8999-0.1701(-0.44%)1:03 PMEST

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