I would agree that RENN has more downside risk as the pattern definitely looks like it has risk to test the $3.21 level. Congrats to the shorts who are printing money. I would say that the RSI's are becoming very oversold and that any hint of good news, such as a 2nd quarter earnings release being "better than feared", or some sort of consolidation/transaction in the sector could be the catalyst - it doesn't have to be RENN, just something that shows a valuation level. Despite the lackluster Q1 results, advertising spending was hampered in Q1 due to a tougher macro environment and a seasonally weak Q1 so any improvement there could help. Also, despite the heavy spending, RENN's cash/cash equivalents, term deposits, and S/T investments actually increased from Q4 2011 despite what some folks are saying ($1.050 billion at end of March 2012 vs. $1.040 billion at the end of Dec 2012) - straight from the q1 release. With basically 388 million shares outstanding, cash per share stands at $2.72 per share so you are getting everything else for $1.00 per share. I agree with your assessment but I believe the consensus trade is short (despite constant pumping from a few folds on the message board) and this one could be setting up for a short covering run. I would be scaling in my covers on this name, the sentiment in all of the social media names is very bearish, aside from the 24/7 pumpers. The market makers can take this both ways and my guess is that they will want to run this back to the $6's or $7's again so they can establish short positions - just waiting for any positive catalyst.
This mm has already made up his pea mind that he wants to set another new 52 week low before earnings release.
Either he is greedy,super duper greedy or he sees something the rest of us do not see, like a huge order he is walking it down to fill or serious selling that has no intention of stopping. I call BS though, high 2's will be the new 52 week low and the bottom before RENN is gone to the races above 15, then gone again above 35, then 60 and finally over 100. The manipulation in RENN has even outdone BIDU and the first 2 years straight manipulation in BIDU!
The market maker could gap open renn at 9 or 10 and run RENN to 30 with hardly any sellers at all. On nasdaq RENN would have been parked at 30 or 40 but an old Goldman yes man is now the CEO of the crooked fraud exchange, the NYSE, to say the nyse is not kind to China stocks would be being much to modest, never has a China stock runup on the NYSE, but many have over on a real exchange, the Nasdaq. One way to get this paid off snake back is to slam RENN stock with large market orders over and over again this thursday or Friday, (whichever one he greedily pushes for high 2's or low 3's (he may not know if he can do high 2's but he wants it so bad, not bad enough to let retail longs get in with serious blocks and weight and pay 3 dollars for a 30 dollar stock, he will end the force down if that shenannigans starts up, nope this is to run stops and scare out newbies holding and adding a little too good, getting a little too confident for a crooked mm's ego. You start buying weight in this range and you will be amazed how fast he stops the games and lifts it back up quickly. He doesn't know what CHEN will say either though you know Goldman has pressured hard for intel and thru the pass to the lead market maker and the NYSE guys on the Goldman side account payroll. I can't wait to see all the positive articles I already knew just from doing my dd on RENN once Goldman is all loaded and the green light has been given for the run to 100!
Low 2's would not shock me though only way it could happen would be a steep middle of the day trade that comes back to high 2's, low 3's by eod and it will also be followed by a gap up the next day and chitloads of volume, much covering and loading are about to be done any day now. Renn will go from nothing volume like today to 15 to 20 million volume washout, then onwards and upwards bigtime, just like BIDU, run may be even better then BIDU though.
Add a little each day and hold 50% of your buying power for market buys when RENN is forced down intra day to 2.50-2.90 range, then back around 3.15 for the close. You will spot it by the serious volume, the last major short covering.They will need some news or two news articles, both bad or 1 good, 1 bad to get all the movement they need.
If we just hit the 2.90 range, I will end up with about 75 to 80,000 shares but if the mm gets greedy and more stupid then he has already been and gives me that 2.50 range for 3 or 4 minutes, I will end up with closer to 100,000 shares. I will retire of this one stock and this one mm taking a 30 dollar stock below 3. Never seen this lopsided a value trade in over 23 years trading.
Disclosure around 65,000 shares long
Reccomend Hold and get ready for some serious adding, you must watch RENN all day till the 7th or 8th or you will miss the move which I speak of.