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Crocs, Inc. Message Board

  • onafunjourney onafunjourney Oct 18, 2007 12:28 AM Flag

    My Crocs Story of the Week!

    If you are long and you are not out there talking about the features and benefits of Crocs shoes you are costing yourself money!

    I spoke with a family friend earlier today. They had been over hear visiting during the summer and I told them all about Crocs shoes and CROX stock. I remember posting something about it at the time and how they left my house saying they were going to go shopping for some.

    Today was the first time I'd talked her since then. She is in her 60's and her daughter in her 30's. They bought Crocs together. She gave the usual feedback. "Oh my God, these are the most comfortable shoes!" She went on and on about how her feet don't bother her any more and how her daughter's knees don't bother her. She thanked me profusely for recommending them. She had thought they were ugly and said she never would have tried them if I hadn't recommended them so sincerely.

    It gets much better. She started telling me about the Mammoths. I told her a more comfortable $40 shoe has NEVER been made. She immediately said she was going to buy a pair of those too and had already been looking at them. The day she was at the mall looking a little girl was there with her mom and asked if she could have a pink pair. The mom said, "No those things are ugly." My friend said, "They may be ugly, but they are the most comfortable things you'll ever put on your feet. You should try them." The lady tried them on and gave the usual reply... "Oh my gosh you're right, they are really comfortable!."

    So anyway my friend had bought the stock too and is really happy about it. I told her about the Christmas list idea and gave her the "crocsavp07" coupon good for 25% off your entire order on line. She is ordering Mammoths for her and her children and grand children.

    Her grandaughter also had a baby recently and said she couldn't wait until the child was old enough to wear Crocs because she was only 8 months old right now.

    All of this flowed out of one conversation on the phone where I asked, "Did you end up getting any Crocs?" I left that conversation feeling ever-more-confident that we are in the very early stages of growth.

    How many pairs of been sold inception-to-date in Crocs Inc. History 70 million? 100 million? Probably not much more than that given that this summer monthly production topped 5 million/month for the first time. If someone has some calculations on this I'd be happy to work with them (APD?)

    Anywhooo, lets say its 100 million pair. Given the propensity for people like me who have 6 pair, or Sharon who has 13 and all the rest of the folks who have multiple pairs or repeat purchases - it seems feasible that the number of actual CROX customers is probably 50 million or so!

    FIFTY MILLION! That is a tiny fraction of the amount of people who will have worn Crocs by the time this story plays out. IF we screen out 1/2 the worlds population because of their income level that leaves 3 billion potential customers. Lets assume a modest penetration rate of 10%. That's still an additional 300 million customers or 6 times the amount of customers Crocs Inc has sold too thus far. So take all of Crocs earnings to date (cummulative) add them up and multiply by 6 and that represents potential sales over the next few years.

    That leaves out Cloths, Bite, and lots of other stuff. It is also likely that 10% market penetration is rediculously low. Suffice it say that stories like we read here every day and like the one I just shared are exactly the evidence we need to see that Crocs is resonating with humanity and Q3 & Q4 numbers will be very rewarding to shareholders.

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