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Crocs, Inc. Message Board

  • wile_e99 wile_e99 Nov 1, 2007 12:28 PM Flag

    Wailing ang Gnashing of Teeth

    Whenever a high-flying stock drops off the table, the people on the message boards cry the blues, blame the shorts, and refuse to recognize reality.

    CROX was overvalued. It is a healthy, dynamic company. Its products are popping up all over the world.

    That doesn't justify a stock price as high as CROX had. It was a balloon, waiting to pop. The stock price was held up by optimism. After a slight hiccup, which is all it took, the price will go back to a reality-based price, and perhaps below, for a time. The emotion that caused the rise has been replaced by fear. 31,500,000 shares traded, so far, today, and it is still falling.

    I expect it to close at around 50, today, then down more, tomorrow. A "dead cat bounce" may take it back up a bit, then it will go down some more. That is the standard pattern when a momentum stock loses favor.

    Anyone who is losing money in this fall needs to learn a couple of basic lessons. Setting stops, selling if a stock drops 7 to 8%, taking some off the table when there has been a nice run-up, not catching falling knives, etc.

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