dsco is ready to explode into enormous profits and the uptrend will begin ifffff.,
- the management announces the remaining batches are ready -> on May 11
- DSCO files with FDA in beginning of 3rd quarter with positive data
- DSCO marketing approach convinces the board
- surfaxin Patent to expire should be extended.,
- Market survey and news publication should state that DSCO is worth it's potential sales of upto $1billion upon approval.
- Analysts upgrade this stock to strong buy and determine the stock price valued at atleast 40 to 50$ ( which is 2.5 to 3.5$ pre-approval.)
- FDA finally approves this drug and DSCO is with flying colors!! -> between Jan to feb
But these facts are similar to saying
"10 changes that transforms a COW into PIG "
One more note steve, the only analst opinion out there before Surfaxin's last rejection in early 2008, stated that DSCO was worth $500 million upon Liquid Surfaxin approval. That number should be lower now due to some patents expiring, etc. However, if you used that number, and divided it by 35 million shares outstanding at the time. You come up with a share price of $14.28. That is higher than my forecast, of $6-9 but gives a good idea of the high end opportunity upon approval. now, they just need to get approved....May 11th, should be an interesting call, they should be able to give a much more accurate timeline for submission, etc on this call. Not a specific date, but maybe an "early Q3/mid Q3/Late Q3" type of response. If they are more vague than that, it is not a good sign.
Seedy, here’s my problem with surfaxin and why I bailed. Surfaxins works well as proven in trials, on preemies. On those babies because of their premature birth cannot adequately produce surfactant. Their lungs are not deceased, it just that their lungs cannot produce surfactant in this early state of life. But that need, is already being met by animal derived surfactant and has work well, although not as well as the artificial surfactant KL4.
DSCO as we all know has made some monumental mistakes in trying to get surfaxin approved. Also the FDA is in no rush to approve surfaxin because the surfactant need is already being met. DSCO needs to get all of what the FDA has deemed necessary for approval and there is much doubt that DSCO can ever meet these relative point to point comparison to the lamb model that was used in the trials. Further, the preemie market is already competitive and when it is all said and done, it is not a very large market.
The hope was that individuals with lung disease, would reap benefit from surfaxin and not be compromised by rejection of the animal derive surfactants. That would have given DSCO a huge market but according to the ARF trials, that dose not seem to be the case. “IF” the trial had shown good results, I would have never sold.
If the liquid form of surfaxin is not approved and there is much doubt that it can, then DSCO is dead.
<<* Relative to the control treatment group, Surfaxin treatment reduced time on mechanical ventilation by approximately 10%, although this observation was not statistically significantly different. Duration on mechanical ventilation was 3.8 days for the Surfaxin treatment group versus 4.1 days for the control treatment group, expressed as the geometric mean (primary analysis per protocol).>>
(- Market survey and news publication should state that DSCO is worth it's potential sales of upto $1billion upon approval.)
JUst to clarify, $1 billion in sales is with Aerosurf approved. Companies own forcasts are as follows:
Surfaxin Liquid (US ONly): $75 million
Sufaxin LS: (US and Europe):$250 million
Aerosurf: (IS and Europe): $1 Billion.
We are still 4 years away at least from Aerosurf, but LS could be 3 ish years away with a good partner and plenty of money.
COmpany does not anticipate being profitable until LS is approved.