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Discovery Laboratories Inc. Message Board

  • dutchboyprint dutchboyprint Nov 14, 2012 11:05 AM Flag

    This is getting bad

    This is getting bad... almost unrecoverable.
    If DSCO were to try and dilute their way out of this problem it would be in excess of 50%
    Here is my math...

    DSCO had $36 million on 9/30/12

    Going to burn $10 million by 12/31

    Assume $12 million in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th qtr of 2013- that's $48 million

    That puts DSCO $22 million in the hole by the end of next year.

    DSCO would want at least 1 quarters cash in the bank.. so add in another $12 million... putting DSCO's cash needs at $34 million between now and the end of next year.

    It was possible to raise $30 million in a secondary back when the price was in the middle to upper $2's
    But with the price at $1.90.. DSCO would need to price the seconadry at $1.20 and sell 25 million shares to get the $30 million...

    43 million shares X $1.90 = $81.7 million Mkt Cap
    43 million shares + 25 million shares = 68 million shares
    $81.7 million Mkt Cap / 68 million shares = $1.20 share price
    $1.20 shares price X 25 million shares = $30 million raised cash

    It all works out... the market cap remains unchanged at $81.7 million... DSCO gets the $30 million cash in exchange for the 25 million new shares and the shareholders get nailed again.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Dutchy I have not peeked at DSCO for quite some time but I must say that it is probably one of the best biotech stocks that gives strength to the saying, "the company that just keeps on taking from it's investors." I do appreciate all you have posted over years and years on this terd of a company. I remember quite a while back your saying you would consider actually buying DSCO if it hit about $2.30 but that was some time ago. So what's happended since? I used to post occassionally under the handle "biotechtrader2010" but for some rason Yahoo knocked me off and I had to start another account. I made about 5k years ago short term trading DSCO on a pop but I tell ya that this company never seems to stop srewing its share holders thus never any sustained appreciation in PPS.

      So Dutchy what is your current rating on this POS? Buy, sell or hold? And if you are on the sidelines when and at what price does this crashing copter become a "buy" again?

      TIA

      BT12

      • 1 Reply to biotechtrader2012
      • $1.20 and I will "consider" buying some for a short term trade, not to hold as an investment in the future of the company.... a quick in and out, selling to those who don't do due diligence.

        I don't know that it will get to $1.20, but that is my number for now.....with the dilution or the "Synthetic Royalties" they have now included in their financing proposals, I sure don't want to be holding the day that news happens. And that day could be any day. I'll just watch DSCO from afar and wait for a big drop in price... that will be my clue that "The Announcement" has come out. Then I'll start checking out what was done and what is going to happen, and make my decision. So I'll just try and make some money somewhere else and keep an eye on DSCO, waiting to step in after the bloodbath.

        Between now and mid January I am going to be very cautious because I don't think our glorious government is going to do anything about the upcoming fiscal issues. I unloaded my dividend stocks a while back and have been putting more into longer term investments in recession play stocks. They are not going to be big winners, but sometimes it's better to just hang on for a while... there will be lots more opportunities in the future, just maybe not so much now. Does this kind of attitude improve the employment situation??? Not a bit. But for now it's MY money and I'll do with it what I want.

    • Like your logic and math. Thanks. What do you think the chances of a buyout are before the dilution? Target price?

    • You mean the bagholders??? This is panning out to be a great year for this stock if played right!!!

 
DSCO
1.660.00(0.00%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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