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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

  • old_guy_gte old_guy_gte May 12, 2006 12:27 PM Flag

    GAPS revisited

    Last January after the strong gap opening on the 23rd, I posted a message concerning my re-reading of the chapter on gap analysis in several charting texts. In sum, the classical pattern is for an initial gap up off a long base, an intermediate breakaway gap and lastly,
    an exhaustion gap. For AMCOL there was a strong initial gap on January 20, up off the base built in 2004 and 2005. That gap has not been filled in since then. Subsequently there have been two smaller gaps (at the end of January and again at the end of March) both of which were subsequently filled in over subsequent weeks. In view of these weaker intermediate gaps, Wednesday's large gap opening and rapid fill-in seems to me to be an exhaustion gap. If it is, we can expect lower prices for a while. I am a believer and my portfolio has since gone from 1% cash to 60% cash. I have never been a "sell in May" advocate but I am trying it out this year. The normal time to reinvest is in early November.
    This is especially difficult to do when the company is charging ahead everywhere and I have been positioned to get the maximum return from their effort. If this charting analysis is correct, even good news may not move the market too much and the risks of a substantial drop seem larger to me.