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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

  • steve_382 steve_382 Apr 26, 2011 8:03 AM Flag

    Q1 2011 Earnings Out - Looks decent

    Looking at my records (to 2002), this(.38) looks like the best Q1 report. Previous best was .35 in 2007. Question is, can they continue to beat the rest of the year. If so, we could be getting back to the old Amcol. Revenues were also a record for a Q1 (222) versus next best Q1 of $191 million in 2008-Q1. Comments were fairly positive. Unless the stock pops up over 40, I see no reason to sell.

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    • We have @38.01 a 12 1/4 bagger in just short of 11 years PLUS dividends. Earnings look very positive into the future.
      Why in the world would you sell just because it would go over $40? Market timing this type of stock is running a large risk of being out at the wrong time.
      There are few true buy and holds left in this crazy world but this is definitely one of them.

    • Steve, I made a stab at projecting earnings based on targets, and got $2.58 for 2011. It will be interesting to see what analysts get, as I spent less than an hour on it, etc.

      One thing I don't understand: in release it said sales of chromite were minimal, but from CC I got impression they were over 10% of metalcasting sales. Did I get that wrong? Doesn't impact my eps projection.

      I'm glad you are finally seeing some nice returns on your stock. I had sold a lot of mine a few years ago, in fear of recession.

      • 1 Reply to algo41
      • Algo,
        It seemed a little confusing in the PR with the first statement about minimal sales of chromite. Later on, they said margins were impacted by the fact that a larger portion of sales were derived from chromite sales. Maybe sales are just now ramping up. As far as looking ahead for chromite, they said demand was good, and on track for 50,000 metric tons by end of year. The expect to spend $4 to $6 million dollars to clean up the operation and get to more efficient operation.

        That statement was a little tongue in cheek, but having said that, even the best company's stock can get over-priced or under-priced. I try to have a view about the company and it's long term operations as well as a view about what the market expects. If I really like a company (e.g. Amcol), and it looks to me that the stock is going up too much, I may sell 10% or 20% and buy it back 10% or 20% lower. Same thing if it drops too much, I try to buy something like Amcol when it drops 10-20% for no good reason.

        Another consideration is just portfolio balancing. I try to have about 10 companies about evenly spread in my portfolio. If one of them gets to 15% of my portfolio, I will probably sell some and move the funds to something else. Anyways, that's what I do. Sometimes it works and sometimes not. As they say, your results may vary.

    • The street sure likes the report.