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AMCOL International Corporation Message Board

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  • algo41 algo41 Apr 27, 2012 5:01 PM Flag

    ACO stock price

    I don't know, Steve. It seems like ACO has at least 3 distinct businesses, so in evaluating size ....

    Lots of things I was excited about have not come to pass, and I am surprised metalcasting hasn't picked up more Asian business. Still,they are executing well in metalcasting and chromium is turning the corner I infer. Oilfield services is a nice non-cyclical business (I don't know why they don't take the additives out of metalcasting and put in oilfield services).

    You once talked about the difficulties of large cap investing. Large caps do tend to have more moving parts, and I have to agree there is a correlation between size and difficulty of getting a real handle on things. Also, I am more impressed these days by the quality of the analysts as revealed by their questions (not good for us).

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    • Earnings and revenues were both records for any Q1, so that's a good start for the year. Ryan still doesn't seem as confident as Larry did, but may still be doing a good job. Sounds like they getting the chromite under control finally.

      Regarding valuation, it looks like revenues willl be up less than 10% on the year and earnings could be up maybe 15% on the year. What kind of multiple to you assign to 15% growth? Currently, using the xnpv calculation with a discount rate of 4%, the market is valuing Amcol assuming a growth rate of 8.6% over the next 20 years. That's conservative, but maybe not unrealistic. If you apply a growth rate of 10% over the next 20 years and a discount rate of 4%, it should be selling for $43.00 per share. That would be PE of about 20, which wouldn't be out of line if they can really grow at 10% for that long. Growth has averaged about 14% over the last 8 years or so. Using that would give a fair value of $80 per share, so clearly most players don't think they can grow at that rate for the next 20 years.

 

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