The chart technicals have coffee in the process of completing a fifth of a fifth wave. For those of you who don't understand Elliott wave analysis consider this. Coffee has reached an area of long term support following a two year decline. Stochastics are over-sold. The most recent committment of traders report shows the commercials reducing short positions and adding to their long positions. Commercial entities(end users)are experts at buying low and selling high.
To sum it up a fifth of a fifth wave should mark the bottom. Can it go lower still? Sure as the fifth wave has yet to confirm a bottom. Let's just say we're getting real close. Over-sold stochastics on both the daily and weekly charts indicate a rally can spring up any time now. The commercials are buying. And we are beginning a period of seasonal strength. Keep in mind markets don't usually turn on a dime so a basing period of choppy trade should develope. Also this year has been a very good year for producers but estimates for next years crop don't look so good. Since this etn is a non leveraged trading vehicle I see no concern to start buying in here and just wait as prices are sure to go up at some point. Hopefully in the near future.
As for the seeking alpha article he's right there's no better cure for high prices than high prices. I would also point out there's no better cure for low prices than low prices. And as far as inflation goes all it takes is one look at rising bond yields to know inflation is coming. Stay long JO my friends. Better days are coming.
Interesting points. Volume jumps called the top and hopefully is calling the bottom somewhere down here. I too see a base forming soon as we're back in the 10 year base. I have just started accumulating small positions down here, as there is no mojo at all and I don't want to be too early. Coffee was in the $1.00 to $1.50 range for quite some time before it topped out over $3. I think the base could be back in the $1 to $1.50 range for a while. We'll see.