Historical data show each cycle high to low takes 5 years. Based on that dont expect JO to seriously turn up before 2016.
Does your 5 year data reflect the worst rust fugus outbreak in Central America in 40 years? I'll take the odds your really wrong.
Farmers the world over are getting better with controlling ROSA.using systemic sprays. Its the same for other cereal crops. Unlike the eweather disease can be controlled.
Oh ya, or the fact worldwide coffee consumption has quadrupled in the last decade. That will really shorten the cycle. I just looked at the last 20 years of data. Good luck with your hypothesis. Better cover.