Ken, you missed the train back in June 4th and here we are again.
I understand your concerns: Europe might blow up, China might land hard and US might fall off the fiscal cliff.
However, don't underestimate Ben's final bullet, China's enormous stimulus power, and Europe's ECB getting more involved.
In addition, the overall market has been resilient despite terrible economic news.
FOE specific: 2011 year-end TBV is $3.98. 2012 low-end guidance is $0.40. Let's assume they lower the low-end guidance by ~35% to $0.25 (like they did in 2011). I think $4 is the bottom. Maybe $3.75 (will be short-lived).
~7% downside for more than 50% upside potential!!!