Wow, this is relentless. As for it being the euro, this is a multinational. They do a lot of dollar based business. BP opens solidly green and this opens almost 1.50 down. I can't believe I'm getting killed for choosing the company that's DIDN'T spill boatloads of crude into the gulf...
You were right about the program trading, ACN and IJS (IShares small cap value ETF), which opened at ~ $41 and $66, respectively, both traded for a penny a share at the low today. Some poor schmuck sold all his shares for a penny each. Now thats a bad day (and a bad program). This is a very real structural problem with the markets, its just a casino now.
Here is a good little chart on the price of oil.
What do you think does better over time ... paper currency backed by nothing or oil?
I don't think it will hit 30, when I said 30s I should have said upper 30s. I simply look at where TOT fell from its high of around 90 before it went to 43 and then rebounded into the 60s from which a 50% retracement would put it in the upper 30s. I look at a retracement from where you have just been, not from the 90 high where you were before the depression low. Again, this is simply a what could happen scenario based on how "I" understand some of these wild theories to work. I am not predicting that is what will happen, just something to think about.
Looking at an FXE/TOT chart comparison I'd say around half is justified. The problem is that they're a multinational and do tons of business in dollars. To base things purely on the euro is a little misleading I think. Definitely hurting us, though.
Oil has also dropped, but the stock was higher at lower levels for oil, so I'm not convinced that's a huge reason either.
I suspect quants just selling until a human with big money comes in and starts buying. Then the machines will let up. So much trading is between machines that we need to be careful how much we attribute to "real" reasons for selling by real people.
Greece wont happen here. The US will inflate its way out of the problem. The Fed is doing it already, quantitative easing is just a euphemism for expanding the money supply (printing more money). Thats what scares me, the only recourse for the little guy is to invest in TIPs (basically no return but inflation protection) or hard assets (real estate, gold, art and other collectibles, etc).
Anyone have an idea of what % of the recent TOT decline is due to the weakness of the EURO??
I can't argue with that. The real US unemployment rate, the G6, is 16.7%. With our debt and the debt being faced by states like CA, there could indeed be blood in our streets if the government tried to take away some of the lucrative retirement plans given to government workers or if they taxed the rest of us to death to try and pay for it. Greece could be us 5 years from now.
Not only are they multinational but the 'plunge' in the euro is only a couple percent. I think this is just an overreaction. The drop in sport market oil prices is much more significant but that is over only a week long period and could reverse just as fast. I bought at 56 54 52 and 50. Hope it turns around in a couple months.
I agree about the euro. I compared the chart for TOT and FXE and if people are selling due to the euro it's indeed way overdone. Particularly for a large multinational that does a lot of dollar denominated business. It's not like every time they get a dollar they turn around that second and exchange it into euros... I agree with the oil points. I expect oil to turn back north this summer. I certainly wouldn't be short it.
My basis is at 55.42 and trying to trade some to get that down. Hard to do when the stock won't make any kind of sustained run, but I really want that basis to come down. At this point I need a bull run to get back to even. One intraday run of a 1.5 or so (like back to even today) would really, really help.