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American National Bankshares Inc. Message Board

  • madmax19471952 madmax19471952 Jun 11, 2014 1:45 PM Flag

    any one selling NYMT??

    I have a nice profit in NYMT
    are we looking at an SPO soon?

    If so maybe I should take my profit
    Just saying--thoughts
    I know that Mark--the Sage will offer me advice! LOL

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    • Let me offer a few more thoughts. We know that a stock usually drops on the ex-date by the amount of the divy, so in NYMT's case, that will be about 27 cents. We also know that an mREIT will decline about 4% on the announcement of an spo (more if the mREIT is not very large), so that's another 32 cents or so for NYMT and we know that the mREIT model almost always leads to an spo whenever the stock is trading at a significant premium to book. So in total, we can expect NYMT to decline about 59 cents or 7% at some point in this period. Annualized,that's about 28%, which is double the current yield. Picking the exact top to sell and the exact bottom to re-enter may be difficult even if one is looking at the chart and RSI levels. But staying in the stock, when you know the probability of a decline because of the ex-div and spo is high, is not playing the odds. I'm not suggesting that every stock should be traded because there are tax consequences and a nuisance factor. But mREITs because of their large dividends and frequent spo's, tend to have more predictable fluctuations in price than other stocks.
      Investing is not just about return, but also about risk and expected return going forward.

    • Thanks to all who offered advice
      I sm sure that others will benefit as well as I
      Thanks Amigo LOL
      PS I am liking the action in FaceBook and KMI is rocking in spite of anti pipeline rhetoric

    • I think we shall see some more upside into the x-div. After that they could do another offering, if so, I hope to have some cash to buy more.

    • sarge...I am holding NYMT and I see no reason to sell it at this time, NYMT is up 20.2% in Total Returns YTD...I only sell for one of four reasons, a) if I think a holding is going a lot lower...b) if I think that I have a better place to put those funds c) to maintain portfolio balance or d) if I need the money...

      That said, I may sell 'some' SFL, SDRL and NYMT 'in the future' for portfolio balance (but they will remain core holdings), but not because I see a compelling reason to do so...! NYMT (yield about 13.5%) still has good color and a yield that is 'hard to replace'...! $tagg...!

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