Wish I had a reason I believed in, but did notice Chinese stocks overall as well as CH small caps were either flatlining or down slightly today. Noticed too, that CPBY's short interest increased a little since last month.
And, although talk of the Chinese government tightening monetary policy has receeded some in recent days, I still think this could be keeping big buyers away - although I'm not a barometer of anything, it's keeping me from getting back in.
Been looking at the 50 and 200 MA charts for CPBY lately for the last three months trying to get a clue and it looks a little early for me to place a bet. If you know charts, let us know what you think.
Near-term: Gap at 5.44 from earlier this week was closed today.
Mid-term: Recent price rises have been high volume and price falls have been on low volume...That tells me CPBY is being accumulated. The big money walks the price down to get in at a better price, and then adds in large blocks at the ask, forcing the price back up.
CPBY put in the second bottom of its double bottom reversal in late February. Since then it seems to be bound by a rising support line (currently near 5.25 - 5.30) and a horizontal resistance line in the mid 5's. A high volume move into the high 5's would be extremely bullish.
Based on its sector, geographic location and current valuation; an eventual break of this consolidation that started last fall seems inevitable.
What will be the impulse? Dollar fall/Yuan appreciation...next earning report...announcement of new deal?
Based on EPS, earnings forecast and a P/E of 10 (which I think is too low for its growth), I have CPBY valued at just under $10/share and see a $20 target in 5 years. More if it starts trading at higher multiples.