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Red Hat, Inc. Message Board

  • mogulone_99 mogulone_99 Oct 7, 2003 12:14 PM Flag

    New high today....

    ...suggests to me that another bid is making its way forward. With over 30% of float now held by arbs, it will be difficult for management's lowball bid to succeed. God bless capitalism!

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    • "Hmm, maybe Bibb I enjoy exercising my democratic right to bitch when I have skin in the game...Most people who can't grasp that simple concept assume that anyone cheerleading is long."

      I agree. Some times I publicly criticize the managements of companies in which I am long. The format of my post is typically "Company X has great potential, but management is screwing it up by doing X,Y, & Z [or whatever]"

      If I genuinely thought that there was almost no possibility that Company X's stock could go up, and a good chance that it might go to what I considered its true value to be, which was $2 when it was selling for $12, then I wouldn't want to own the stock, and maybe would want to be short. Surely there would be better stocks to be long.

      As to ways to play a better economy, ask people other than me. I happen to think it will get weaker again next year, for a variety of reasons. But that stuff is all guess work. Whether the economy gets stronger, and there is rising inflation, or it gets weaker, and there are increasing questions about the dollar, both of those outcomes are bullish for gold, IMO.

    • Hmm, maybe Bibb I enjoy exercising my democratic right to bitch when I have skin in the game. Since I pay income taxes I tend to contact my congressman often to tell him when he's wrong. When I buy product at a store that turns out to be junk, I tend to take it back and moan and groan loudly. Doesn't it make common sense to you that I'm acting in a very rational manner?

      Most people who can't grasp that simple concept assume that anyone cheerleading is long. Anyone bashing is short. Unfortunately that's true for the vast majority of the irrational people who post on the Yahoo boards.

      I act in a more rational manner. When I'm long and the company's performing as I expect, I don't cheerlead on a board. I don't defend the company and it's mgt team. I usually don't post at all. When I'm long and not a happy camper ... I bash, complain, moan and groan, express my opinions about what should and should not be happening.

      I do break that pattern every now and then. MYG is a good example. I hate that company. I have family and friends who own MYG products. They complain all the time about the products. Most recently I am hearing about Neptune Washer issues left and right. But even worse, they tell horror stories about it's customer service. I shorted MYG and bashed. But they really do deserve a good bash for treating their customers like trash. Not my normal pattern though.

      Funny isn't it. I thought RHT had a very bloated compensation and benefits structure. I thought it had a management team that got no respect. In part because of the comp structure. But the cash flow was there to take the damn thing private. And I moaned about that from day one. And it happened. It should have happened SOONER that I expected though.

      Sheesh man, give me a little credit.

      I'll give you credit. You were here much sooner that I was. For a very different reason. You saw the cycle - early. I saw the cash flow - late. I'm not good at playing cycles. What are looking at now, for bigger payoffs when the economy is performing better?

    • cpa: When the stock was $12, you argued strenuously that it couldn't possibly go up, because everyone knew that management was crooked, and because any rally would be hit by an avalanche of selling by employees who exercised their options. You stated that the stock was worth, and heading to, $2.

      Now you claim to be have been long when you wrote that stuff. I'm baffled. Why would a person who was so negative on a company and the prospects for its stock, own shares? Was there something very bullish that you saw in the picture that you intentionally kept out of your posts? Why?

      Given your extremely bearish posts, why shouldn't one conclude that you were short?

      Thank you.

    • Bibb,

      You really do have difficulty determining fact from fiction. I'm starting to feel sorry for you. If I was short, think I'd still be here? There are no prospects for this stock to fall given the support of the underlying bid and multiple parties wanting to make the purchase. Anyone short would have taken their lumps and moved on by now.

      I've sold 1/2 of my long position and held the remaining 1/2 just to have an excuse to hang around and give you grief.

      Let's hope the Sox pull it out this evening, eh?

    • I don't know whether there will be a higher bid or not. Keep in mind that a higher bid would have to be $20 or more to justify the current price, because of delays, due to shareholder votes and what not, in actually getting the $20. So I am satisfied here, and am glad to effectively take my approximately $15 profit, moved into next year by the covered calls, and let professional arbitrage guys take the risks to make a few points more.

      I must say I enjoy watching poor cpa38 get killed in his short sale. I know, I know, he claims to have been long, but when someone regularly trashes the prospects of a $12 stock and says it is going to go to $2, then he is either short or a hypocrite, or both. Even though I am bearish on the market, I may buy some Maytag, because knowing that he hates it is probably all the research one needs.

    • >>I have written deep in the money covered calls on my remaining position to move the gain into next year, so I pretty much don't care what happens from here.<<

      So you don't expect the stock to move above current prices on a higher bid?

      Thanks for leading me into this stock a couple of years back. It's been a pretty nice trading stock since, and acted as a nice "recession play" back then.
      Looks like we'll have to find another one for that purpose.

    • But decline is only against banner years due to tech bubble bursting, right? Those unusual years showed huge growth. So yes, business is down from 2001/2002 yet RHT shows growth over 1998. This stock still has a nice trend line over 5 years, including the declines of this year.

    • I must be on the right track. You're stepping up the pace of childish name calling.

      Have even taken the time to read the SEC filings or listen to the conference calls? The profits have hung in there because the bonus accruals went from the ungodly to the unreasonable as sales softened. Firms not paying outrageous bonuses don't get the kick of lower bonus expense when the business turns down. Heap all the praise on mgt that you want. But steady profitability based on declining bonus payouts doesn't deserve an ounce of praise.

      No, you haven't corrected anything I've posted. You've expressed your usual pompus opinion.

      Are you from Boston? (now, that's a real slap in the face).

    • Yeah, the neighborhood ... NY slums.

    • "A monkey can run an outplacement firm in an economic meltdown."

      I've corrected your monkey analogy in the past. No doubt an outplacement firm can do well in bad times. But layoffs peaked in Q1 2002, as companies were reacting to the ending of the bubble and the decline of spending post 9/11/01. Yet RHT's earnings continued to grow substantially in the five quarters reported since then, despite the clearly declining outplacement market.

      I have been pretty clear that it is the recent results, in which RHT's earnings did well despite headwinds, that cause me to give some praise to management, not for doing well in the prior year when conditions were favorable for its business. I can't believe you are so stupid as to not notice that distinction, but perhaps you are.

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