IF you guys did your home work and read their 10 k /10q you have actually realized that this was a possibility - BUt now that the news is now out its a little bit late since you are paid to get it right but who the hell listens to you guys anyways
This is just the beginning of the pain for the nursing homes. Most people think the only cut that they are going to experience is the published 11.1% cut from Medicare. This cut is a result of Medicare "recalibrating" the rates to off set their previous attempt at a "Budget Neutral" shift to the MDS 3.0 and RUGS IV reimbursement system. Most providers are going to see an additional 5%-12% cut in Medicare revenue as a result of the new Change of Therapy(COT) and End of Therapy(EOT)assesments required under the new Final Rule. They are also going to see an increase in the cost of providing therapy which will amount to an increase in salary costs of approximately 5%-15% due to the change in the way group therapy is billed. This is all before "The Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction" decides what else to cut. They are also exposed to potential Medicaid cuts from the states as a result of the federal government reducing matching funds. I would stay away from all SNF providers until after they report Fourth quarter earnings in Jan. 2012. I believe that we could see another 25%-35% drop in these stock prices by Feb 2012.
Here's the section that talk about the cut in the 10Q - so I'm not sure why everybody is reacting to this like its something new - politicians are clowns - they really never cut anything but appear like they do
The first option CMS is proposing is a 2.7% market basket increase that will be reduced by a 1.2% productivity adjustment as a result of the Affordable Care Act, which results in a net increase of 1.5% over fiscal year 2011 payments. The second option CMS is considering would adjust for the unanticipated impact of the change to the new RUG-IV payment system in fiscal year 2011. The proposed second option states that to make the RUG-IV payment system revenue neutral, it would reduce reimbursement rates by approximately 12.8%. After considering the 1.5% market basket increase, the net impact would be an 11.3% rate reduction effective October 1, 2011. The proposed notice has not been finalized and is still in the public comment period. We cannot predict the ultimate impact the proposal will have on our results of operations, liquidity or cash flows in the future.
I haven't seen it yet but there is something in there about cuts to nursing homes,etc but the company mention this back in its last earnings report so this really should not be a surprise but maybe now it is a reality where before it was a possibility - the company had great earnings but they had this health medicare care cut of I think they said of a possibility of 12 percent for medicare so I sold the stock when it was around 46 after earnings because of this reason yet the stock continued to go up so I guess a lot of times things you think might be baked into stock aren't always true. I think you are going to have to look at some of the bigger names maybe kindered care which will probable have a news item about it