I've been following the board for a while now, and while there has been a little too much pumping and bashing, I think there have been some good thoughts exchanged. Just as a disclosure, I've been long in different forms over the past 9 months. Right now, I hold Nov. $5 calls hoping that a deal announcement would drive the price well above that strike.
However, my experience leads me to think that the recent information exchanged here and complete silence from the firm means that there are only 2 potential outcomes.
First, there are late stage buyout talks taking place. The reasoning is simple, 1) the information regarding Ed and the Dr being in Europe for business reasons suggests late stage discussions with a European firm and 2) company's tend to go completely silent when a buyout is about to happen. If this is the case, buyout prices are usually based on moving averages. The 50 day moving avg is probably near 4.25. A premium on that might get around $8 per share.
The second possibility is that everything has fallen apart. The trip to Europe might have been a desperate attempt to find someone, anyone to work with. The silence is because they have no idea what to do now. The thing that leads me to think this is the greater possibility is that the constant changing timetable around the partnership time table. From 1H 2011 Canadian partner to 2H 2011 Canadian/European partner. Now, it's anticipates Canadian partner by end of 2011 (previously, we were supposed to be on the market well before the end of 2011). European partner no timetable now. This is not good, not good at all. Now, even if we get a partner, how good will the name and numbers be? It's all up in the air.
The problem is that the longer we go without news, the more shorts can damage the stock. So, if scenario 1 is right, the moving average continues to go down and the buyout price goes lower. If scenario 2 is right, this stock will get absolutely crushed.
I know the longs on here will call me a "fake long," but I have stated my position. I'm long November calls, still hoping for something. But I'm starting to think scenario 2 is more likely. And either way, this is not turning out to be as good as any of us longs originally thought.
Your theories make sense M but they are only theories. Announcement will be made when Big Pharma decides time is right. APRI is not calling shots any longer. My major concern is what you alluded too. The longer this goes on the lower the PPS goes. Then partnership announcement may not even get us back to $6.
I believe a buyout is probable and will be announced in a month. Until then do not look at PPS everyday, it will drive you to drink! Novartis will be the player I hope.
Thanks for the advice but I don't need it. I will take the necessary action depending on the company's progress and not someone else's speculation. C'mon, we are only getting started.
Gly - I hope you are right.
Tina - Last night you agreed with my concerns. Now your only comeback is that I have no balls. You can't say that it is a speculative stock and is a great stockto own. A great stock is one that has a great product, a great a strategy and a great execution. While I'm in this stock for the product and even the strategy, I think the execution has been awful in the last 6 months. The only people to blame is management. We shareholders need to hold them accountable instead of letting them drive down value day after day.
Advice to you: don't pick a biotech and sit back for years waiting to "make serious money". They will burn through your money. And then ask you for more. You have to hold them accountable for executing the strategy.
If they sell the company, they are doing the right thing. If not, their poor execution of the Vitaros partnership and has hurt us all, to the tune of 42% of our value so far. Feels like a kick to the balls.
PVB, most of the stocks you posted on this board have tanked also. Name 1 other Bio that has the pipeline of this company! I don't care if the stock goes down to $3.25 because I'll buy more. My $20 figure is based on Vitaros and NexAct selling over the next year. The partnership deal would give us a bump of a couple of bucks, but I'm a believer and am willing to wait another yr. for my $20. I'm investing in this co.for the future. Femprox also could be a blockbuster and the co. will have the US market. You posted you bought APRI, was that just BS to get a reaction? Try watching BSDM and EDAP, both have tanked and I'm buying more of them also. Be heading to Destin next week to meet friends and play golf. Any suggestions on restaurants in the area? Stay well, live long and prosper! Your posts are always a chuckle. BG70
What do you want us to do, sell our shares? meepsy, here's my advice to you: if you have any doubts in this company, get out. You may not want to hear it but this is still a speculative stock. APRI is a great stock to own. This is where you make some serious money. But patience is the key here. Nobody knows what came out of the Europe visit. We could only guess.
You can always call or e-mail the company but they won't disclose anything until ready.
No balls playing in small biotech stock? Sell and save yourself a headache trying to figure this out. Just a friendly advice.
meepsy, you have some valid concerns and I'm with you. I agree with homerun's post regarding the mid year update by the company. It was released a little over a month. At this point, we could only hope that they have sealed the deal. Vitaros launch in Canada is in November (I believe). A company can release partnership news a week before the commercial launch of a product. That is less than 2 months away.
HERE's a..."Third" !
APRI trades down 'below 3.25', now....simply due to
the fact that "small
cap bios" are in serious trouble, overall ! ! !
Should this occur,
Bob, your "patience"
will REALLY be 'tested'....LOL !
It will takes YEARS
, and, not "days or
weeks" before you see APRI rise to the PPS levels you seek...hahahahaha !
Even if APRI doesn't
dip below 3.25(but,
imo, it...WILL !!), the stock will, at BEST, meander in the
'same' trading range
that it's been in !
If that's where you
want your $$$ to be,so be it, but...
*** DON'T post UNrealistic "price tgts", here !!! ***
(and, yours 'ARE' - - "UNREALISTIC" !)
I agree meepsy, Like I said yesterday something is wrong when they miss two timetables....
I dont know why the silence from them ..but to me it spells trouble...I think your scenario #2 is happening...Talks must have fallen through and they are taking on bidders that were offering less than the first bidder..
I do think they have solid bids in from more Pharma's for the Canada deal but Europe deal is in Question......?
Why did they go to Europe ? why the silence...?
They are keeping shareholders in the dark.... I do believe He and Dr. B are doing everything they can at this juncture...but it is not good to do this to shareholders..
like I have been saying all summer...they need to disclose all recent talks and activities to shareholders...
They owe it too them !!@!
Management just issued a mid year update in August that provided investors detail information on what they're working on.
You don't discuss deals that are currently being negotiated with the public. Once the deal has been signed a news release will be issued, not before.
I have not talked to Cox and it seems like not many others have gotten a response from him recently either. Furthermore, there is little you can get from talking to him. He can't tell you anything that's not public anyway, so the only thing you can do in a one-on-one conversation is try to judge whether he is competent or not.
The other important thing is that there hasn't been news - on anything - for weeks now. Once again, that could mean that they are selling the company and don't want to ruin it with another bad PR (like the whole "approval" fiasco) or it could mean that they are totally lost in their strategy.
While they have many drugs and the OTC drugs are coming out, the short term fate of this company rests on Vitaros. They have been promoting the potential partnership, they need the revenue. This partnership is big.
Madlove - your comments assume that they have a partner. There is a real possibility that they can't find a partner at this time. After all the talk, that would be devastating to the company. But even as you mention, the pps pop if there is an announcement could be short lived. And if the deal excludes Europe, or isn't profitable enough, or isn't with a big name, there might not even be a pop.
It seems as if the "$12 by February" and "$20 by end of 2012" talk we seen on this board is now not only a long shot but probably impossible. Unless the partnership blows any of our expectations (even avtr_herr) out of the water. Given market conditions and delays, that seems unlikely.
Therefore, I think the buyout is something that longs should be pushing for big time. It is the only way that we get a significant pps rise that will hold. My hope is an $8 buyout before the end of the year. Otherwise we will be stuck in our current range for a while or the more likely outcome is that we collapse.
This might be a reason why no insider shares have been sold yet (that we know of). Although, if they did mess up this partnership, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a totally incompetent management team.
APRI management has stated on more than one occasion they were in talks with "multiple" companies interested in commercialization of Vitaros in "both" Canada and Europe.
No buyout talks going on, not with 20+ NexACT enhanced drugs including insulin and numerous oncology therapies. A partnership with just one of these could generate an EPS of more than a dollar per year.
With only 20M shares outstanding you can figure out what the pps will be in a couple of years ($20 to $40+).