Most everyone on this board seems to know the truth but like Nicholson said they "can't handle the truth." Once or twice in a lifetime market inefficiencies provide a can't miss opportunity. These inefficiencies are very brief.
The sub std auto piece of this company is worth 259 million (or will be in 60 days or so) the parent is capped at 150 million. As someone pointed out on an earlier post, the market is valuing the P&C portion of this company at negative 2.00 bucks or so. This is irrational and will not last. If you are not fully loaded up on this company you will be be kcking yourself in the a** in the very near future-You heard it here first.
PGR has truly been a superstar with United Fire not far behind. Interesting to see how some of these companies lose focus and begin a slide that snowballs and can last for 5 or more years. So many of these insurance stocks have had a rough ride since 98'
United Fire is close to being the best run of the regionals. The draw back is, as you say, the price. I don't see how you can go wrong for the next three quarters or so then I fear we will enter a new pricing cycle.
I don't see much in the way of bargins in the large or regional P & C sector but there is still room for significant appreciation there.
I don't own it but PGR (basicly a one trick pony) has incredible growth & a very low Combined Ratio. They are only company that is growing both writing directly & through independent agents. You would think their agents would be up in arms but it is such a blockbuster market that they seem to overlook that PGR competes against them.
UFCS looks dirt cheap on enterprise value/sales basis and under 5 times cash flow and has stable growing P&C biz though the stock near all time high. VTA over $5 now for first time in two years and should head higher at least another leg until the day traders come back. When they push it up I get real cautious...lol
$259kk will flow down to VTA? Obviously a significant portion of the funds will be used to capitalize the Affirmative Holdings Insurance Companies. You can read the preliminary prospertus which pretty well lays out the ipo plan but doesn't have the $ listed yet. Do a Google search under Affirmative Holdings and there is plenty to read.
Plenty of uncertainties are out there. I doubt this is another AMGN circa 1990.
Regardless, how they divide the money, obviously, market value Affirmative at least 15 times earning, you follow VTA very close. I hope you can start to long on this stock instead on the side line. I invest lots of insurance stock, like SPC, ALL and ACE. The market is all perception.
When I bought TASR, every one said I was crazy. I triple my money in less then 6 months.
We all in the business to make money. Keep open minded. You don't see SPC, ALL will have 10% day like VTA, right?
VTA is still extremely cheap on this otherwise very expensive NASDAQ market.