Well, Tony, under normal time of rig activity for HERO, given that 90% of their rigs are shallow water rated--------NG would be 75% of the hydrocarbon that their customers explore and produce------when the GOM is busy, and all those cold-stacked rigs are under contract in the US market.
Right now, the most activity for HERO is in the Persian Gulf, Western Africa and Mexico, where crude oil is the target---and India offshore for NG---so currently the likely mix for HERO is 1/2 crude and 1/2 NG.
EXXI, MMR and XTO, along with a few others, are targeting wells that are trying to prove up DEEP gas on the shallow GOM shelf------down 22-26,000 feet under the sea floor, but in only 30-150 feet of water......so should this new target of shallow shelf--deep gas starts to get proved up, more E&P companies will be attracted, which will result in more utilization for the shallow jackups for the likes of RDC, ESV, PDE and HERO.
Bears watching----------the latest well being drilled by XTO and MMR is the Blueberry Hill well------they are almost at TD now, and have encountered 150 foot of payzone---above the main target at 24,000 feet TD. Could be a good time to pick up shares of MMR------------------
Deep - You usually have good posts, but with reference to the shallow water / deep well plays that MMR etal are exploring, you need to do more DD. Hercules and Pride jackups are shallow water, SHALLOW WELL rigs. They are not equiped to drill deep wells. Rowan is the company that will be used for deep wells. Herc does however, have 2-3 barge rigs that can drill deep.
Pre IPO management is no longer with Herc and would never have paid 2 billion for Todco. Post IPO managment did not adhere to the operating methods of the pre IPO guys, loaded up the company with scores of high paid deadhead payroll types... The pre IPO management was already on track to move into international markets and did not need Todco to do this.
Hence my post of several months back wondering when, not if, they would have to write off goodwill.
Herc may be OK for day traders that understand the nature of program trading and the effect on whole sectors.
Disclosure... Have many friends in Herc and Pride. Sold my Herc at around $29 with cost around $22.