Oil company BP sees CO2 emissions rising Oil company BP predicts Copenhagen emissions targets will be missed as energy demand grows Robert Barr, Associated Press, On Wednesday January 19, 2011, 10:18 am EST
LONDON (AP) -- Carbon emissions will continue rising for the next two decades, climbing 20 percent over 2005 levels by 2020, unless governments take stronger action to ease energy demand and boost green technologies, BP PLC said Wednesday in a survey.
BP's projections, which see strong demand for fossil fuels from energy-hungry emerging economies like China, imply the targets agreed at the UN's 2009 climate summit in Copenhagen would be missed.
Emissions are likely to increase by 1.2 percent a year until 2030, lower than the 1.9 percent rate of the previous 20 years, the report said. It said that emissions from the OECD countries -- the industrialized West -- were expected to decline, but not enough to offset rising demand elsewhere.
More aggressive policies by governments -- including carbon pricing, cutting coal consumption by 23 percent and increasing renewable fuel consumption by 33 percent -- could produce a gradual reduction in emissions starting in 2020, said the report prepared by BP's chief economist, Christof Ruehl.
But that would still fall very short of the Copenhagen target to keep the Earth's average temperature from rising two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above the levels that existed before nations began industrializing in the late 18th century. That would be no more than 1.3 degrees Celsius above today's average temperatures.
Even with stronger policy, BP said emissions by 2030 would be around 33 billion tonnes (36.4 billion U.S. tons) of CO2 per year, more than the Copenhagen target closer to 24 billion tonnes.
"We are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions," BP's chief executive, Bob Dudley, said at a briefing.
"But that doesn't mean that we oppose such progress," he said, noting that BP had been calling for governments to impose a carbon price.
BP projected that demand for primary energy -- that is, raw fuels like oil or coal -- will grow by 1.7 percent a year until 2030; non-OECD consumption is expected to be 2.6 percent a year. OECD demand was projected to average 0.3 percent per year in the same period, with the rate actually declining after 2020.
OPEC's share of oil production is expected to rise to 46 percent by 2030, the highest level since 1977.
BP's Energy Outlook, previously an annual internal report, was released to the public for the first time on Wednesday.